The 2004 Bowl Run Down
The 2004 Bowl Schedule
New Orleans Bowl Dec 14th 6:30 PM ESPN2 N Texas vs. Southern Miss
Tangerine Bowl Dec 21st 6:45 PM ESPN Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
GMAC Bowl Dec 22nd 7:00 PM ESPN Memphis vs. Bowling Green
Fort Worth Bowl Dec 23rd 5:30 PM ESPN Marshall vs. Cincinnati
Las Vegas Bowl Dec 23rd 8:45 PM ESPN Wyoming vs. UCLA
Hawaii Bowl Dec 24th 6:00 PM ESPN UAB vs. Hawaii
MPC Bowl Dec 27th 1:00 PM ESPN Fresno State vs. Virginia
Motor City Bowl Dec 27th 4:30 PM ESPN Toledo vs. Connecticut
Independence Bowl Dec 28th 5:30 PM ESPN Iowa State vs. Miami (Oh)
Insight Bowl Dec 28th 8:30 PM ESPN Notre Dame vs. Oregon St
Houston Bowl Dec 29th 3:30 PM ESPN UTEP vs. Colorado
Alamo Bowl Dec 29th 7:00 PM ESPN Ohio St vs. Oklahoma St
Continental Tire Dec 30th 12:00 PM ESPN Boston College vs. N Carolina
Emerald Bowl Dec 30th 3:30 PM ESPN2 Navy vs. New Mexico
Holiday Bowl Dec 30th 7:00 PM ESPN Texas Tech vs. California
Silicon Valley Dec 30th 10:00 PM ESPN2 Troy vs. NIU
Music City Bowl Dec 31st 11:00 AM ESPN Minnesota vs. Alabama
Sun Bowl Dec 31st 1:00 PM CBS Purdue vs. Arizona St
Liberty Bowl Dec 31st 2:30 PM ESPN Louisville vs. Boise State
Peach Bowl Dec 31st 6:30 PM ESPN Miami vs. Florida
Outback Bowl Jan 1st 10:00 AM ESPN Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl Jan 1st 10:00 AM FOX Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
Gator Bowl Jan 1st 11:30 AM NBC Florida St vs. W Virginia
Capital One Bowl Jan 1st 12:00 PM ABC Iowa vs. LSU
Rose Bowl Jan 1st 4:00 PM ABC Michigan vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl Jan 1st 7:30 PM ABC Pittsburgh vs. Utah
Sugar Bowl Jan 3rd 7:00 PM ABC Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl Jan 4th 7:00 PM ABC USC vs. Oklahoma
*6-5 Akron stays home as the only eligible team not going bowling this season.
The New Orleans Bowl N Texas vs. Southern Miss
Once again North Texas lays claim to the Sun Belt’s lone bowl: The New Orleans. Last year, they faced Memphis on this same night, losing 27-17. This time around, they’ll be looking to continue their 7 game win streak with a victory over the Rebels from Southern Miss.
While all the talk has been about the freshman phenomenon Adrian Peterson up in Oklahoma, the fact is the nation’s best freshman running back is the Eagles own Jamario Thomas. He leads the nation in rushing at 190 yards/game, including 5 straight 200 yard games to close out his season. On the other side of the ball is a Southern Miss team that had Cal within their sights the entire 60 minutes of their season finale.
While the Rebels certainly proved that they have the ability to play with the big boys, this one will present a difficult match up problem for them: their 83rd ranked run defense against the nation’s 22nd ground attack and most prolific rusher.
Look for the Rebels to stack the line and shoot the gaps to contain the powerful Mean Green run game. If that happens, Southern Miss ought to be able to jump out to a quick lead and force North Texas to play catch up –something thay definitely aren’t suited to.
The Rebel Yell will be heard loud and clear on the streets of the Big Easy.
Tangerine Bowl Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse
It’s a BEast grudge match in the Tangerine –er, Champ Sports, bowl as mediocre Georgia Tech takes on mediocre Syracuse. Talk about not getting any love, the Orange absolutely destroy BC in the season finale 43-17 and all they get is something called the Champ Sports Bowl!?! Well, they did struggle just to reach the post season, but hey so did these Jackets.
Tech finished out the season in disappointing fashion: losing two straight to Virginia and in-state uber-rival Georgia. The Yellow Jackets rank in the bottom half of just about every major statistical category in the ACC –but that’s just about what you’d expect from them in a conference featuring Miami, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and NC State. But if you wanna talk scary, you need look no further than the man leading the charge for Tech: Reggie Ball. Yes, Ball, the exciting young player who can win one all on his own shoulders –but more often than not snatches defeat from the wings of victory all on his own (can anyone forget those last two plays of the regular season where he spiked the ball on 3rd and 20 and then threw the ball away on 4th down!?!).
The key in this one will be the running of Damon Rhodes and the iron-man play of Diamond Ferri. In their upset of BC, these Orange-men combined for 251 yards on 36 carries as Ferri earned all conference honors of the week on both offense and defense. With almost a month off to prepare, look for the coaches to get Diamond more involved with the O –and if that’s the case, expect the Orange to take the sting out of the Yellow Jackets. If Ferri isn’t the difference maker, then at least the Orange can rely on Ball giving them the game if it comes down to it.
GMAC Bowl Memphis vs. Bowling Green
The Falcons will be taking a trip to the GMAC bowl this season after getting knocked out of the MAC title game by a furious 20 point come from behind victory at the hands of the Toledo Rockets. The Memphis Tigers are 8-3 overall and a whisker (37 seconds) away from upsetting now BCS ranked #7 Louisville.
Bowling Green boasts the MAC’s most diversified offense, the nation’s 2nd ranked pass attack, and the nation’s 3rd best turnover margin. Memphis, on the other hand, is 111th in the nation in pass defense but has a top 10 unit on offense overall.
While everyone may have been talking about Leinart, White, and Smith for the Heisman, the real deal is right here in the MAC: BG’s Omar “The Touch Maker” Jacobs. He has quietly thrown for 3,637 yards, a nation leading 36 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions while at the same time running for another 388 yards and 4 scores on 88 carries. While his competition may not have been as good as what those ‘other’ guys faced, it certainly is in line with what the Tigers should be able to throw at him –which means he should have a field day.
If Memphis wants a bowl win to close out the ’04 season, they’ll have to not only clamp down on Omar, they’ll have to get it done on the ground with DeAngelo Williams. He’s rushed for over 200 yards in each of their past 4 games, willing his team to a 3-1 mark (that lone loss was the 37 second heartbreaker to Louisville). If they can pop DeAngelo past the Falcon line, they should be in good shape, but I just don’t think the MAC has gotten enough respect this year –especially on defense (when was the last time that happened among the mid-majors?!?).
I’m going with the Mean Green Falceen and their Touch Maker.
Fort Worth Bowl Marshall vs. Cincinnati
Thanks to a severely tanked North Division, the Big12 was unable to make it’s 8th bowl commitment (well, actually their 9th bowl team seeing as how to Big12 teams are in the BCS yet again). Fortunately for ‘Fort Worth’, the Thundering Herd were more than willing to ride into town to face CUSA’s Bearcats. While the season ender for Cinci was something of a disappointment (a 70-7 wood shedding by Louisville), they had managed to outscore their opponents 187-67 in the four games prior to that. In their one MAC matchup this season, they sunk their claws into Miami of Ohio to the tune of 45-26. But that was early on in the season, and this Herd is a totally different animal.
After starting 0-3 against the likes of Troy, Ohio State, and Georgia (losing by a combined 15 points), the Herd have gone 6-2. And while you’d expect them to excel in a particular facet of the game –or at least have a headliner that takes control of the team and leads them to victory, as it typically the case for the Herd, that really isn’t the case with this year. QB Stan Hill is good enough to get the job done, but if he sometimes gets pick happy. TB Earl Charles is a steady enough hoss to carry the rock and handle the load (he’s topped 100 yards each time Hill has gotten pick-happy), but he’s not a game breaker. Instead, the Herd rely on a ‘team’ attack, dishing the ball to several receivers and using two back sets where either back can get the ball on any given play.
For Cinci, it’s all about the quarterbacking skills of Gino ‘Yes, my mother hated me’ Guidugli who has thrown for 2400 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. If he’s back and 100% for this one –he suffered a broken hand in the Louisville game —expect the Bearcats to be able to keep up with the Herd. Regardless, expect Marshall to Thunder away into the night as the lights fade on this ’04 season.
Las Vegas Bowl Wyoming vs. UCLA
In a battle of ‘just barely eligibles’, 6-5 UCLA takes on 6-5 Wyoming. UCLA’s Maurice Drew has been a total sled dog when he’s healthy, but he’s still struggling with a nagging high ankle sprain that will keep him a step slow through the end of December. The Cowboys finished off the season with 2 straight losses to Utah and New Mexico.
While this one should be a blow out for the Bruins, their 106th ranked defense (111th in run D) might just be the thing that keeps them from going over the .500 mark in all-time post season play (they’re 12-12-1 as of right now). On the other side of the fence, the Cowboys will be looking for their first bowl victory since 1966 –a 38 year drought. In the only serious competition that they’ve faced (A&M and Utah), Wyoming was outscored 76-28, with 14 of those points coming in junk time against Utah.
So all things being considered, I’m doubling down on Drew –QB Drew Olson and TB Maurice Drew.
Hawaii Bowl UAB vs. Hawaii
The Hawaii Bowl hemmed and hawed and gaffed and gacked until the Warriors finally pulled a bowl bid out of the hat by dispatching Michigan State at the end of the season (side note: why do they even bother listing the Hawaii Bowl as getting the WAC’s top team? If Hawaii qualifies, they always get it!).
Mack’s younger brother Watson Brown has earned UAB their first bowl bid in school history. Too bad it’s in Hawaii, against Hawaii, and in Jimmy Chang’s swan song game. Yep, that’s right, the 8th year senior (okay, maybe it’s only his 6th season but boy it sure seems like he was playing when JR got shot by Sue Ellen!) is ‘finally’ finishing up his NCAA career. While he’s already the nation’s career leader in passing, you just know both he and Hawaii want to send him out in style.
In this one, I’ve got to take Chang and the home team –can UAB seriously remain focused with all those bitch’n waves rolling in? While the game itself might not be much to dance to, just getting to see that Rainbow Warrior go nuts on the sideline, spearing things left and right will be entertainment enough (if you haven’t seen the Hawaii mascot, you seriously have to catch this one: he’s one of those intangibles that make college pigskin so ridiculously superior to the Pro’s).
Pick: Hawaii, if for no other reason than those boys from Birmingham won’t be able to keep the Poi down from their pre-game Luau.
MPC Bowl Fresno State vs. Virginia
The Cavaliers turned down a trip to the Champ Sports bowl so that they could take travel up into some frozen tundra to Boise in December. Fresno State, after crumbling under the Top 25 microscope earlier in their campaign, have put their ship back in order and won 5 straight in convincing fashion: a combined 280-80.
For the Bulldogs, they’ve gotten it done behind running backs Bryson Sumlin and Wendell Mathis. They have combined for 1,878 yards this season, and have given their tenacious D (the WAC’s best unit) all the rest they need on the sideline.
Meanwhile, Virginia has ‘only’ played in one of the roughest conferences in the country: the new ACC. While they’ve gone 0-3 against the ACC big boys (Virginia Tech, Miami, and Florida State), those are the only 3 losses they’ve got. They’re tops in the conference in rushing (good for 12th in the nation) behind tailback tandem Alvin Pearlman and Wali Lundy, and their defense is 15th best in the nation –good for ‘only’ 5th in the ACC.
While I’d love to see Fresno pull off the upset –and they’re certainly capable of it—I just don’t see that happening in this one. UVa is simply too sharp and boasts the best tight end in the nation –Heath Miller- who will present an extremely difficult match up problem for the Bulldog D. Add to that the fact that Virginia is ‘still’ the 15th best defense after the schedule they’ve played and you know Fresno isn’t going to be able to just waltz up and down the field.
Motor City Bowl Toledo vs. Connecticut
After getting snubbed last year, UConn finally makes it to post season Nirvana (they joined D1A just 3 seasons ago). Unfortunately for them, they get their crack in a Bowl Game against the MAC Champion that also doubles as the home team: Toledo is, what, 30 minutes from Ford Field in Detroit?
Even so, this is Dan Orlovsky’s ‘big time’ game –the one where he can show the scouts that he still deserves that 1st rounder consideration. Last season, he was simply phenomenal as a passer, but this year –without a threat in the backfield with him- defenses have kept him from taking over the game. Despite that though, you just know Randy Edsell with find a way to get his quarterback in a groove and flying high (Orlovsky has thrown for less than 200 yards only once this season) –and against the nation’s 2nd worst pass defense, you just know he’s drooling every time he goes over those game tapes.
But all that being said, how can you go against a Toledo Rocket team with a guy named Scooter sledding with the rock? Scooter McDaniel is the Rocket’s top ground threat, becoming the featured back late in the season –but responding by running for 412 yards in the final 3 games. But if Scooter doesn’t get you, QB Brad Gradkowski certainly will. He has thrown for 3,475 yards and 27 touchdowns this season (is anybody else noticing that the MAC is loaded with quarterback talent? –we’ll just have to see how all these bowl games go to find out if the MAC Qs really are that good, or their pass defenses really is that bad).
While the Rockets certainly take a while to get out of the gate, when their O gets humming –it really gets humming (just ask Bowling Green and Miami of Ohio!). Expect the Huskies to start out a bit timid in their first ever Bowl Game, but jump to a lead by halftime. In the second half, it’ll come down to adjustments: can the Huskies 20th ranked pass defense keep Gradkowski in check or will he Rocket them for a 3rd straight time to victory in the 2nd half? My money’s on Toledo –they are an offensive machine when they finally catch a gear.
Independence Bowl Iowa State vs. Miami (Oh)
Miami of Ohio is 6-1 in postseason play. Iowa State finished last season 2-10 after winning their first two games (that’s right a 10 game skid to end the year). The last bowl game the Cyclone’s were at was the Independence in 2001 –where they lost to Alabama on a field goal that was ruled ‘wide right’ by the officials (it towered over the goal posts, thus forcing the refs to ‘call it in the air’.
Miami’s Josh Betts has thrown for 3,255 yards and 22 touchdowns and has been a solid replacement for departed QB Ben Roethlisberger –if the Iowa State D can shut him down, they should win this one relatively easily. The Cyclone’s Bret Meyer has thrown for 1,812 yards but come on strong as of late, throwing for at least 200 yards in their final 3 games –wait, is that really impressive? TB Stevie Hicks is a heartbeat away from a 1,000 yard rushing season (something that has been sorely missed in Ames). Also helping their cause will be freshman WR Todd Blythe. At 6-5, he can snag just about any ball thrown his direction. He leads the Big12 at 22 yards/catch. If Meyer can get him the ball in the open field –it’ll be an easy 6 nine times out of ten. In this one, I’ll take the Cyclones 17th ranked pass defense against a team that is 101st in the turnover battle.
Insight Bowl Notre Dame vs. Oregon St
While the Irish head coaching saga continues, lost in all the shuffle is the Irish team. How can they possibly stay focused enough to face a Beaver squad that ‘should’ be as feared as any team in the nation, but doesn’t get one iota of respect? The Irish should have done the classy thing and bowed out of bowl season, thereby letting 6-5 Akron get into the act (they are the only bowl eligible team this season that isn’t playing in December or January) –oh but I forgot, ND has been completely devoid of class these past few weeks. Okay, okay, that’s a cheap one. My apologies, but you still gotta wonder what’s going on up there under all those Golden Domes.
If the Irish can pull together and just be a ‘team’ in this one, that chemistry alone should notch them the dubbya. However, if the off the field distractions get to them –and I don’t see how they can’t, then they’re in trouble. Oregon State has the nation’s 8th rated pass attack, the 6th ranked pass defense, and 22nd overall defense.
QB Derek Anderson is probably the one quarterback in a BCS league that you haven’t heard of –but should have. He’s thrown for an amazing 3,257 yards and 25 touchdowns –it’s his 17 picks that have kept him out of the limelight. Even so, this is a Beaver squad that doesn’t quit and finds ways to be in the in the game all the way to the end. Oh, and did I forget to mention that OSU lost three games to LSU, USC, and Stanford by a combined 14 points?
The Irish, meanwhile, have lost 3 of their last four –including dropping their last 2 straight by yielding 41 points to both Pittsburgh and USC. Their pass defense is 114th in the nation (yes Irish fans, it’s 3rd worst in the country) and while they’re balanced on offense, they are balanced in mediocrity: 77th on the ground and 54th through the air). The brightest spot in this team is their run defense, 9th in the country. The only problem with that: the Beavers won’t be running the ball (they are 2nd to last in the nation on the ground).
If the Irish can keep their domes on straight, they’ll need to smack Anderson around to get him to toss a few crucial picks. If that happens, the Irish should escape out of Phoenix with a victory.
But like I said, I don’t think the Irish players will be able to keep focused for this one, so look for Oregon State to repeat a big bowl win over the Irish (they met 3 years ago in the Fiesta Bowl during, oddly enough, Willingham’s first season).
Alamo Bowl Ohio St vs. Oklahoma St
The only thing that can be guaranteed here is that OSU will win the Alamo –which OSU is open for conjecture. Oklahoma State has the distinction of playing in the toughest 6 team mini-conference in the nation. Ohio State has the distinction of playing in the Big10 and, well let’s face it, of being Ohio State.
The Buckeyes finished the season with a statement victory over the Wolverines 37-21, while the Cowboys were bushwhacked out in the desert plains by Tech, 31-15 to end their season and keep them out of the Holiday Bowl.
With Vernon Morency sledding and Donovan Woods a dual threat under center, the Buckeyes will have a tough time defencing this Cowboy attack. And let’s not forget Woods’ younger brother, D’Juan, at wide out –he can be a difference maker if left alone on an island.
For the Buckeyes, they’ve got something special in Ted Ginn Jr. –this boy can do it all. He’s #1 in the nation in fielding punt returns, taking 4 to the big house, and has the speed to rip off huge chunks of yards in the few touches he gets on offense. If the Cowboys can put a Poke on him every time he enters the game, they should be able to keep him under wraps. If that’s the case, don’t expect Ohio State to muster much on offense (they rank 100th in total O).
I’m going with Oklahoma State –they simply have too much talent on offense for the Buckeyes to keep manhandled for a full 60.
Silicon Valley Classic Troy vs. NIU
Do you know the way to San Jose? You can sure bet the men of Troy and a band of Huskies do. The Trojans closed out their year with 4 straight wins over Sun Belt brethren, all the while posting a descent 2-2 non-conference record against Missouri (W), Marshall (W), LSU (L), and South Carolina (L).
NIU, on the other hand, has won 7 of their last 8, and was tripped up by Maryland in their season opener by a field goal and Iowa State in a nail biter. They’ve got the nation’s 12th ranked scoring offense to go along with the nation’s 13th ranked ground attack (tops in the MAC) headlined by Garrett Wolfe who wasn’t able to play in their lone loss over that 8 game stretch to close out the season. For the season, Wolfe has 1,572 yards and 17 touchdowns, including a monster 325 yard game against directional school, Eastern Michigan, in the season finale.
For the Trojans, they’ll lean on their defense and the outstanding running of DeWhitt Betterson. Troy is 7th in run defense and 17th overall in the nation (both good enough for the top spot in the Sun Belt). The soft spot on the offense is the passing game: 114th in the nation. Senior Aaron Leak was benched mid way through the year after throwing more picks than touchdowns(8 to 5), but Freshman D.T. McDowell has faired little better, throwing for just 463 yards on 36-of-84 attempts and netting 3 INTs to 4 TDs.
In this one, I’d love to see the Sun Belt rise up and become a true ‘mid-major’ power, but I just don’t see it happening: the Huskies, while not especially dominant on defense, should be able to line up and knock the Trojan QB around all day. If that happens, the Huskies will control the tempo of the game and let their sled dog do the rest.
Continental Tire Boston College vs. N Carolina
Talk about being miffed, but for that final melt down game against the Orange, BC would be facing Utah in the BCS. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, get rewarded for closing out the season with 3-of-4 dubbyas, including that gem of a game over Miami and that near miss against Virginia Tech just 7 days later.
If BC can’t find it’s magic from the Irish game, this one could be over very early. RB Chad Scott has come strong on at the end of the season for Carolina, rushing for 649 of his 798 yards in those final 4 games and waltzing into the Zone 6 times. And as if that wasn’t enough, QB Darian Durant has cut down on his lone bug-a-boo: interceptions. Over the final 4 game stretch he threw only 3 picks to 6 touchdowns (not hall-of-fame numbers to be sure, but light years ahead of his 5 picks to 3 touchdowns ratio he held during an earlier 4 game stretch this season).
Staring down that dual threat will be the Big East’s #2 run and pass defense. With QB Paul Peterson the heart and soul of this Eagle team, he’ll have to play a picture perfect game in order to pull BC’s fat out of the fire. With this one, it’ll come down to what BC can do defensively against North Carolina and whether the Tar Heels can keep Peterson isolated and ineffective when the 4th quarter rolls around. Expect the BC defensive line to bottle up TB Scott and dare QB Durant to beat them with his arm. If they can do that, then they’ll have the Tar Heels right where they want them: in a shoot out.
However, I don’t think the BC line will be able to adapt to the running of Scott and the run/pass of Durant. And in the final weeks of the season, the NC D proved that they can be a force to be reckoned with, holding Miami to just 77 yards rushing, Virginia Tech to just 100 yards passing, Wake Forest to 109 yards passing, and Duke to just 53 yards rushing. In the end, I fully expect the Eagles to be tarred and feathered.
The EV1.net Houston Bowl UTEP vs. Colorado
Okay, I haven’t been able to address this yet, and it simply must be said: Gary Barnett is the Big12 Coach of the Year?!?! What kind of crap is that! Ok, sure, he took a program that was just begging to have an oh-fer season and kept them competitive in the Big12 North, but you know what? So did Iowa State’s McCarney –and he did it with much less talent than Colorado and when nobody expected them to do squat! Barnett is running a program that is so out of control, the AD quit, the State Legislature is barring the release of their investigative report to the general public, and nobody with a 10-foot pole will even touch the university, much less the football program. Okay, so maybe Barnett isn’t to blame for ALL of that –but you can’t honestly believe he’s totally innocent either.
Well, that being said, let’s get back to the Houston Chameleon bowl –at least that’s what they should call it: One year it’s the GalleryFurniture.com Bowl, the next it’s just the Houston Bowl, then it’s the EV1.net Bowl –it’s just too many names in too few seasons. Besides, I’ve got a bajillion chameleons in my back yard and not a single piece of Gallery Furniture or EV1 email).
Anyway, enough with the rants. The Buffs get an up and coming UTEP Miners squad this year in Houston –and it’s really an ideal matchup, coaching wise, considering what Mike Price has been threw over the past couple of years and what Barnett has had to deal with this season.
Price is as good as it gets when you talk football minds, unfortunately that’s about all he’s got, but at a school like UAB that can be a god send. The Miners are playing for their first bowl win since the 1967 Sun Bowl and Colorado will be looking to get some post-season play for its 47 freshman players (at least, Barnett won’t have to rely on recruiting to get his team going these next couple of years).
Bobby Purify is the Buffs top dog, but for all the pub he gets he still just barely crossed the 1,000 yard barrier this season (he narrowly missed dropping back under the 1,000 yard mark with his 7 yard effort against OU in the Big12 championship game). On the other side of the ball is Howard Jackson, who has sledded for 1150 yards and 9 touchdowns –including a 5-game stretch of straight 100-yard games (a Miner record).
UTEP is 8th in the nation in scoring offense, but that might not be saying much considering they went oh-fer in their non-conference schedule. Colorado on the other hand has played a brutal Big12 South schedule which includes Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State and finished with the 94th ranked offense and the 101st ranked defense. But what do rankings mean when you’re comparing schedules as diverse as these?
This one will come down to Colorado. Are they okay with the way they played against OU in the title game or are they hungry to finish the season on a brighter note? QB Joel Klatt will need to play smart to keep from giving away the pigskin too much (he’s thrown 15 picks and only 9 touchdowns all season) and Purify will have to be healthy and STAY healthy during the game (has he played an entire 60 minutes healthy since 2001?). If they can do that, then the Buffaloes’ll stampede out of Houston with the win.
Emerald Bowl Navy vs. New Mexico
Some day, somebody will have to explain to me why there is an Emerald Bowl but no Ruby or Diamond Bowl. Until then, we’ll just have to sit back and enjoy as the Midshipman sail into San Fran and take on the Lobo’s.
This one promises to be long on ground burners and short on aerial fireworks as both teams are among the best on the ground (Navy is 3rd in the nation and New Mexico is 35th), and exactly one cut above abysmal through the air. On Defense though, the Lobo’s are 8th best in defending the run and will match up much more favorably in this one.
FB Kyle Eckel leads the Middie’s attack with 1,062 yards on the ground (hey, that’s more than CU’s Bobby Putrify, but I bet you heard his name much more this past season!), and with Aaron Polanco a dual threat at quarterback, that might just be enough to keep the Lobo’s from getting to ravenous on D.
For New Mexico, RB DonTrell Moore leads their ground attack with 1083 yards and 6 touchdowns. The eradict play of QB Kole McKarney (47% completion rate with 7 INTs and 5 Touches) has limited the Lobo’s to a one dimensional attack all season. Will that be enough to keep the Midshipman from ganging up to stop the run? I doubt it. Look for Navy to take control of the tempo early in this game and then sit back and ride out the 2nd half storm as New Mexico just isn’t built to play catch up.
Holiday Bowl Texas Tech vs. California
Now we get into the meat of Bowl Season! If you ask me though, I think A&M should be going out west for this one instead of the Air Raid. Why? I just don’t see Tech being able to contain J.J. Arrington the way the Wrecking Crew could. Plus, a blow out win here and we’ll never hear the end of Cal’s Rose Bowl Rant (and if you think Cal would blow out the Aggies, I’m sorry but what have you been smoking?).
That said, Cal will definitely have its hands full trying to contain an offense the likes of which they have NEVER seen. Sure, there’s the copious amount of footage on the Tech offense, but until you experience them lining up on your defensive line with their ultra-wide splits, you really haven’t ‘seen’ them.
The most interesting match up will obviously be the Air Raid’s O against Cal’s DBs –they’re as good a unit as any in the nation. But what will really be key to this game is how Tech defends the Bear run game: if they can contain JJ, they’ve got a serious shot at the upset as Aaron Rodgers will be without 2 big time targets in Geoff McArthur and David Gray (one to injury, one to felony).
Well, I’m almost certain the Golden Bears will win this one, but I’m still calling on the Air Raid for one last, magnificent battle.
Music City Bowl Minnesota vs. Alabama
This one should feature some good old fashion smash mouth as the Golden Gophers boast one of the most potent ground attacks in the game behind Laurence Maroney and Marion Barber, and the Tide have yet to give up the century mark to a single runner (boasting the nation’s 2nd ranked overall defense).
The difference maker in this one could be the play of Tide QB Spencer Pennington who took over for injured starter Brodie Croyle. Pennington has been anything but reliable for the Tide, tossing 8 picks in 7 games and only finding the end zone 3 times. But in the season finale against Auburn, things seemed to finally start clicking for him, throwing for 226 yards on 17 of 30 passing.
With the Gophers boasting one of the nation’s worst pass defenses, this could be the game where Pennington lives up to his billing and exacts revenge for a season full of frustration. If that doesn’t happen –and the smart money says it doesn’t—look for a healthy Gopher O-Line to rollback the Tide and pop Maroney and Barber for some big runs.
Sun Bowl Purdue vs. Arizona St
In what can only be termed a disappointment after blazing out of the gates at 5-0, Purdue lands in the Sun Bowl thanks to season ending victories over Ohio State and Indiana. Kyle Orton, in particular, has had to deal with the lion share of the criticism as it was the young defense that wasn’t expected to produce much that made Purdue’s post season dreams come true.
Rated at #8 in the nation, there is no question that Orton has the skills to succeed at the pro level –and with his hip pointers and flexors healthy, he should rain a world of hurt down on the Sun Devils. Consider this, in the 8 games in which he played with two healthy hips, Orton threw for 2,632 yards, 26 touchdowns and only 4 picks -completing 64% of his passes. Is there any other quarterback in the nation that has put up such gaudy numbers in just eight games –who doesn’t play for the Air Raid, that is.
On the other side of the ball, ASU will be without superstar Andrew Walter, a none too shabby QB who has quietly thrown for 3,150 yards, 30 touchdowns and 9 picks this season. That will in all likelihood prove the difference maker in this one as the Devils will have to find a way to get the ground game rolling against the Boilermaker’s 10th ranked defensive unit. And while ASU was able to run away with one in surprising fashion against Iowa earlier in the season, this one won’t be a Waterloo for Orton & Co.: All Aboard.
Liberty Bowl Louisville vs. Boise State
In what would have been the best bowl matchup of the entire season, Utah took the ‘easy’ way out and accepted a BCS bid to play Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl (can you just imagine how good a Louisville-Utah game would have been?). That being said, a Boise State-Louisville Liberty Bowl won’t be none too shabby either.
Boise State puts the nation’s longest win streak (22) on the line as they travel out of Idaho for just the 4th time this season. QB Jared Zabranksy leads the Bronco offensive juggernaut that is ranked 2nd overall in the nation (11th with the run and 14th with the pass). While their run defense is 4th in the nation, don’t let that ranking fool you: opposing teams just haven’t had a chance to play anything other than catch up against these guys. Oh, and how do Zabranksy’s numbers stack up you ask? 2,728 yards, a paltry 15 touchdowns and 11 picks (a sort of ho-hum set of stats for such a fireball of an offense, don’t you think?).
On the other side of the ball, the Louisville Cardinals are one, 7 second Devon Hestor punt return away from being undefeated and making the Texas-Cal argument a moot point. They’ve got the offensive prowess and the defensive muscle to make any BCS team do a head jerk. Stefan Lefors leads not just the Cardinals offense, but also the nation in quarterback rating –yep, he’s numero uno with a 185.39 rating, throwing for 2,403 yards, 18 touchdowns and a remarkable 2 INTs (he also owns a breathtaking 74.0 completion percentage).
In this one, all that it really comes down to is Louisville: will the usual Cardinal team show up, or the own that gave up 49 to Memphis? I’m betting on the ‘usual’ Cards to be dealt in this one, but either way it will certainly be one of the more entertaining Bowl Games of the Oh-Fo Season.
Peach Bowl Miami vs. Florida
It’s a good old fashioned Florida grudge-match to finish the year. Brick Berlin leads a Cane squad in search of a soul after having it smashes to bits against Virginia Tech –yet again—in the final game of the season. Brick has thrown for over 2,500 yards this season, but failed to bring it home when the team has needed him most –and thus one of the reasons Miami will not be playing in a BCS bowl for the first time in 5 years.
For Florida, they’ll be without the services of Ron Zook, and will already be looking forward to next year when Urban Meyer comes to town –you just know the off season to come and go fast enough for QB Chris Leak. Ciatrick Fason is the Gators main threat on the ground, a punishing rusher who has rushed for 1,173 yards this season to keep the Bulldogs and Seminoles from making a piñata out of Leak. He’ll have to do it again in this own as the Canes will undoubtedly be gunning for the quarterback’s head.
These two teams last met in 2003 during the regular season with the Gators coming out on the short end of the stick 38-33. This time, expect the final score to be a little wider –but not the end result. With Frank Core, Tyrone Moss, Roscoe Parish, and Devin Hestor at the skill positions, the Canes should be able to out hustle the Gators in relative ease.
Outback Bowl Wisconsin vs. Georgia
What better way to kick off the new year than with the Badgers’ Erasmus James and the Bulldogs’ David Pollack? Wisconsin stumbled at the tail end of their season, dropping their final two to Michigan State and Iowa (both away games) by a combined 79-21 margin (they had given up 82 points the entire season to that point!). Georgia finished the season with a 6 point victory over rival Georgia Tech, but had all their hopes and dreams dashed by a 24-6 loss to Auburn that previous week.
Georgia is still a dangerous team with the nation’s 10th rated passer David Greene playing a little pitch and catch with Reggie Brown. Greene has thrown for under a 150 yards in only one game this season, and has amassed 18 touchdown strikes to just 2 picks while completing 60% of his passes –oh, and lest we forget, he’s only the NCAA’s winningest quarterback of all-time.
Wisconsin should have a healthy Anthony Davis back in at the tailback position –something they really haven’t had very often, and the offense lacks a noticeable punch when he’s not on the field: the team has scored just 20 points in 4 games when TD doesn’t play. Underneath center, the Sophomore John ‘Stuck in Neutral’ Stocco will be leading this ‘rag tag fugitive fleet’ (sorry, I just saw a Battlestar Gallactica preview –is that show even necessary, and on a side note: whatever happened to Space: Above and Beyond?). Stucco has made 8 touches but 7 picks this season, while his reads have gotten better as the season has progressed (55-of-115 in the first 5 games, 84-of-121 in the next 5), he reverted a good bit in the season finale, throwing for just 145 yards on 18-of-38 passing, 2 picks, and no touchdowns against Iowa –ah, but maybe not having TD I that game had something to do with it.
For the bulldogs, the defense is obviously the strong suit of the team, anchored by Pollack they are the nation’s 12th rated unit, so don’t expect Stocco to really be able to pick them apart. However, with a healthy TD in the line up, DO expect the Badgers to be able to run on these Dawgs –cause that’s what a Barry Alvarez team does.
Oh, and let’s not forget one other all important aspect to this game: the Badger D. They finished the season at #8 in the country (7th against the pass) and 1st in sacks. Their front line is without a question one of the best I have ever season in college football. With a completely healthy line, the Badgers ravaged opposing teams while their offense was stuck in neutral (if you didn’t get a chance to see them play early on in the season up at Camp Randall, then you missed one of the season’s greatest moments). This defense showed the nation how to destroy west-coast offenses: 4 lineman that can’t be contained by the offensive line man smack the quarterback while the corners and db’s play bump and run to disrupt timing routes.
If the Bulldog O-line can’t slow down this Badger pass rush, Greene and the whole of Georgia are going to have a long day. I’m going with that Badger D in a defensive game for the ages.
Cotton Bowl Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
If we can’t get A&M to ‘downgrade’ to the Holiday, can we then just consider giving the SEC slot to Cal? I mean, it’s not like the SEC can fill all their bowl slots anyway, and let’s face it: why not have Cal play in the Cotton if Texas is playing in the Rose?
The Aggies will get to cut their non-conference teeth on the Volunteers on New Year’s Day, as the re-found/rediscovered/resurgent power in the Big12 South makes a claim to the national stage. At the beginning of the season, they were demolished, destroyed, and devastated by Utah, but by the end of the season they were dancing toe-to-toe with the Texas’ and Oklahoma’s of the pigskin world. This Tennessee team had better be on the look out: they wear orange, their initials are U-T, and that alone is enough to get these Aggies pumped and primed for all full 60 minutes.
Cedric Houston leads the Vol ground attack while the freshman Danny Ainge holds down the reigns under center. For the Aggies, it’s Reggie McNeal, Terrance Murphy, and Courtney Lewis who form a ‘triplet triangle’ that makes opposing defenses go crazy trying to defend.
Most Interesting Stat of the Game: A&M lost four games this season. Three of them were to the Top 6 teams in the nation (OU, Texas, and Utah) –the 4th was to Baylor. If the Aggies have a ‘Baylor’ game in this one, it’ll be over in the 1st quarter. If not, expect Reggie to volunteer his way into the endzone –time and time again. Ags in a surprise route.
Gator Bowl Florida St vs. W Virginia
WVa returns to the Gator Bowl after losing to Maryland last season and won’t be happy with anything less than a victory over the Seminoles. While the offense has continued to struggle for Florida State (22% 3rd conversion rate is the worst in the country), their defense has excelled (ranked #1 in run defense, giving up only 69 yards/game). This will be an interesting match up to see as the Mountaineers’ Rasheed Marshall is a two-way threat, throwing for 1,755 yards and running for another 780 (2nd most on the team). West Virginia is #7 in the nation on the ground, averaging 254 yards/contest and when KJ is healthy, there isn’t much that can stop him.
The Seminoles will go with Chris Rix to start in this one, but if he falters early expect to see the young Wyatt Sexton take over. In my opinion, ole’Bowden must be smoking something to give Rix the nod: he has thrown for all of 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 7 games this season. And thus I must make the call: Rix will Nix the ‘Noles right in the Gator.
Capital One Bowl Iowa vs. LSU
Iowa was a Big10 favorite until their blow out loss to Arizona State down in the Desert back in Week 3. It took them some time to put their season together after that earth-shattering loss, losing to Michigan the following week. But since then, they have been on a tear, winning their last 7 straight, including consecutive ones against Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. What has been more amazing than anything else is that this was supposed to be a dominant running team, but the loss of 5 straight running backs at the beginning of the season has forced a retooling on offense (Iowa is 117th in the nation running now). Their defense is clearly what keeps this team winning, ranked 10th overall and allowing just 90 yards/game on the ground, the Hawkeye D should be able to contain LSU and keep them bottled up –and with 6 weeks for their offense and ‘a couple’ of their running backs to heal (Iowa last played on Nov 20th), that 117th run stat isn’t the real deal.
LSU escaped an opening season upset to Oregon State (solely because OSU’s place kicker missed 2 PATs in a 1 point game!), lost by a point to Auburn and got blown out by Georgia. After all that, they closed out the season with six straight victories. Marcus Randall leads this offense, but has thrown for only 1,180 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions –hardly scaring. And if you think LSU is just a run team instead, then your right. They rank 19th in the nation on the ground, and they get it done by committee (their leading rusher Alley Broussard has just 758 yards this season). The strength of the Tigers is –are you sensing a common theme yet among the elite bowl teams?- their defense, rated #3 in the nation. They yield just 98 yards/game on the ground and 145 yards through the air. Will the still hobbled Hawkeye’s be able to break through the Tiger defense, or will they get whacked down by that Big Red Stick?
My gut tells me Iowa is the real deal, but LSU’s stats are so outrageous it’s hard to go against them. The deciding factor for me is the large dolphin shaped cloud hanging over Nick Saban’s head. He is reportedly interested in the Miami head coaching job (at 4-5 Mill a year, wouldn’t be?), and LSU has already stated they are ‘maxed out’ on salary. Hawkeyes.
Rose Bowl Michigan vs. Texas
Since 2001, there have been as many Big12 teams in the Rose Bowl as their have been PAC10 teams. Do you think that’s got the Rose-heads a bit miffed? Do you think things might just change now that ABC has the Rose contract and Fox has the BCS? Side note: the Rose pays out $14.5 Million to their teams, the Orange pays out just $14.0 –hmmm.
Michigan’s Braylon Edwards may be the ‘senior’ for the Wolverines, but it’s the freshman that have been making the most impact: RB Michael Hart and QB Chad Henne. Hart has sled for 1,372 yards this season, including a 3 game 200+ yard/game stretch against Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State. Henne has thrown for 2,516 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. While the Wolverines aren’t fearsome in any one particular aspect, it is their well-roundedness than makes them such a fearsome opponent on the schedule.
Texas’ Cedric Benson leads the nation with 19 rushing touchdowns, has a total of 1,764 yards rushing this season, and has rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 out of 11 games (the only one he missed was a 98 yard effort against OU). QB Vince Young –while good for at least 2 big time mistakes/game—is the team’s #2 rusher with 887 yards on the ground and 1,669 yards through the air (he has thrown 10 picks to 11 touches however).
All of this adds up to Texas being the nation’s #2 rushing offense and the nation’s #105 passing offense. On defense, the Longhorns are 14th in the nation on the ground –an impressive figure when you consider that they played against 4 of the nation’s top 8 running backs this season. But we’d be remiss if we noted that Adrian Peterson rung the Horns bell for 200 yards in a single game and Michael Hart is the closest in style to Peterson of the other running backs Texas has faced (he’s also 9th rated in the nation).
In this first EVER meeting of two of the nation’s most storied programs, I just don’t see how the Rose can really complain all that much: a Wolverines-Longhorns match up is something the pigskin world has been pinning for, for years, and what better way to have it than in the Rose Bowl in January?
As an Orangeblood, I’ve got to take Texas, but in this particular case I really think they are going to win. The defense should be able to shut down Michael Hart and keep Chad Henne under wraps –but Braylon Edwards is the wildcard. This season Texas has given offenses just about everything they want underneath in the passing game –a guy like Edwards can turn those kinds of passes into touchdowns in a hurry. On offense, the Horns will have to grind it out against one the Big10’s stalwarts, but I think it’s the versatility of Vince Young that will keep the Wolves ears pinned back and unable to aggressively lock down on Benson.
Fiesta Bowl Pittsburgh vs. Utah
Not only is this the first ever BCS game to have a mid-major involved in it, but it’s also the only BCS bowl game ever to have teams where both coaches will be changing schools next year: Urban Meyer to Florida and Walt Harris to Stanford. The loss of Meyer by the Ute’s is definitely a heart breaker for that program –as is the loss of 2 other top assistants. While Utah will be playing lights out for their coaching staff, you just have to wonder how much of an emotional drain it is to see your coaches bailing after a great season.
The season Alex Smith has put up the kind of numbers that puts Heisman winner Matt Leinart to shame. He has also shown the kind of leadership that puts the voters for the Heisman to shame (he guided his team to 12-0, and the first ever BCS berth for a non-BCS school –ok, so how does that get overlooked?).
The real tragedy though is that Pitt, at #19, is even in the BCS. Sure, their conference is a founding member of the BCS and thus gets preferential treatment, but that was when Miami and Virginia Tech were members. Now, the BEast is the nothing more than a mild mannered mouse by comparison and completely undeserving of this kind of preferential treatment (just ask California, Texas, Utah, Louisville, or Boise State). While I’m not sold on the idea that Utah could beat any of the other Top 6 teams in the country, I know they can not just beat Pitt, but whoop up on the Panthers (but hey, so could the other Top 10 teams!).
Tyler Palko is indeed the second coming of Dan Marino for Pitt –I am remembering correctly that Marino played at Pitt right? While his overall numbers are impressive: 2,816 yards, 23 touchdowns and 7 picks, it’s his play over the latter half of the season that was ridiculous: 1,570 yards, 16 touchdowns and 2 picks over 5 games against opponents who include Notre Dame, Syracuse, and West Virginia. He is the heart and soul of this team and the only reason that they have made it to bowl season –much less the BCS.
For Utah, you can talk all you want about Meyer and the passing of Alex Smith, but it’s actually the run game that has made them so dominant (quietly 9th in the nation) as Marty Johnson (782 yards), Quinton Ganther (620 yards), and QB Alex Smith (563 yards) lead the ground attack. And while, you may not be able to judge much based upon their Mountain West conference schedule, you can discern a little bit more about this team by their non-conference schedule (396-184) with wins over North Carolina, Texas A&M, and Arizona (110-43). In Urban’s swan song, I’m taking the Ute’s by 14.
Sugar Bowl Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
Will Auburn’s anger turn against them or will it cement their resolve to finish the season a perfect 13-0? Tommy Tuberville, after almost being run out of town by Louisville’s Petrino, has made the come back of all come backs in taking this squad undefeated through the SEC and guiding them to an undefeated season.
While Virginia Tech may have a couple of warts on their record, losing to USC in the season opener 24-13 and to a rabid NC State defense 17-16 are nothing to cry about. This Hokie team will give Auburn every last bit it can handle –proving to be a much tougher opponent than what they faced in the SEC this year.
Bryan Randall leads the Hokies with 1,965 yards passing and last threw an interception on October 9th. Since losing to NC State back in September, the Hokies have been quietly perfect, winning 8 straight against some impressive opponents which include West Virginia, Virginia, and Miami. At the same time, their defense has also climbed the ladder, rising all the way to #4 in the nation overall and #3 in scoring defense, allowing just 12 ½ points a game.
But the War Eagle has a defense of it’s own: ranked #5 in the nation overall and #1 in the country in points allowed at an incredible 11 points/game (and that AFTER going undefeated in SEC play AND winning the title game). Carnell Williams and Reggie Brown head line an Auburn ground attack that consumes 190 yards/contest while QB Jason Campbell holds the nation’s 3rd best passer rating.
Of the BCS games, this one should be the one with most lead changes as the Hokies and the Tigers battle out for supremacy down in Nah’lans. But when the 4th quarter rolls around, I’m expecting to see the running back tandem of Williams and Brown pull the War Eagle to a perfect 13-0 record.
Orange Bowl USC vs. Oklahoma
It’s Leinart vs. White. Peterson vs. Bush. Stoops vs. Carroll. Sooners vs. Trojans. All across that board give me Sooners, Sooners, Sooners, and let’s see… Sooners. IMHO it should be Auburn and OU in this game –that’d even settle the Rose Bowl’s problem by the way! And but for one of the worst officiating calls in recent history, UCLA should’ve beaten USC on December 4th –making all of this ‘moo’ point.
In their last 3 games, OU hasn’t just won –they’ve dominated opposing teams, winning by a 33 point margin (107-6). OU has the nation’s #9 ranked defense -after playing through their Big12 South schedule and also has the nation’s 5th ranked scoring defense (they’ve given up just 6 points in the last 3 games). Adrian Peterson averages 153 yards/game which is only just behind Jason White’s average of 163 yards. They have the nation’s 8th overall offense and are 9th in scoring offense, failing to score at least 4 touchdowns in just one game: the Red River Rivalry over in Dallas during the Texas State Fair.
The Trojans, of course, are no slouch either. They hold the nation’s 2nd longest win streak at 21, are 7th overall in defense and scoring defense (2nd against the run) and 7th in scoring offense. LenDale White and Reggie Bush together average 151 yards/game and the Heisman winner Matt Leinart throws for an average of 155 yards an outing as well. The Trojans have suffered through a few close games this season: VaTech in the opener, Stanford 31-28, Cal 23-17, Oregon State in the Fog Bowl 28-20, and UCLA 29-24 when a bad call by the ump resulted in a 10-point swing in their favor.
Well, seeing as how I’ve already said that OU and Auburn belong in this game, my pick should come as no surprise here: Sooners. Their secondary will take away the quick strike from Leinart while the defensive line and speedy line backers will plug the gaps and stop White and Bush in their tracks. Oh, and if you thought USC was the only one dangerous on returns: Antonio Perkins has a little something he’d like to show you: 8 pigskins in a duffle bag, all of’em punts returned for a touchdown during his career.
New Orleans Bowl Dec 14th 6:30 PM ESPN2 N Texas vs. Southern Miss
Tangerine Bowl Dec 21st 6:45 PM ESPN Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
GMAC Bowl Dec 22nd 7:00 PM ESPN Memphis vs. Bowling Green
Fort Worth Bowl Dec 23rd 5:30 PM ESPN Marshall vs. Cincinnati
Las Vegas Bowl Dec 23rd 8:45 PM ESPN Wyoming vs. UCLA
Hawaii Bowl Dec 24th 6:00 PM ESPN UAB vs. Hawaii
MPC Bowl Dec 27th 1:00 PM ESPN Fresno State vs. Virginia
Motor City Bowl Dec 27th 4:30 PM ESPN Toledo vs. Connecticut
Independence Bowl Dec 28th 5:30 PM ESPN Iowa State vs. Miami (Oh)
Insight Bowl Dec 28th 8:30 PM ESPN Notre Dame vs. Oregon St
Houston Bowl Dec 29th 3:30 PM ESPN UTEP vs. Colorado
Alamo Bowl Dec 29th 7:00 PM ESPN Ohio St vs. Oklahoma St
Continental Tire Dec 30th 12:00 PM ESPN Boston College vs. N Carolina
Emerald Bowl Dec 30th 3:30 PM ESPN2 Navy vs. New Mexico
Holiday Bowl Dec 30th 7:00 PM ESPN Texas Tech vs. California
Silicon Valley Dec 30th 10:00 PM ESPN2 Troy vs. NIU
Music City Bowl Dec 31st 11:00 AM ESPN Minnesota vs. Alabama
Sun Bowl Dec 31st 1:00 PM CBS Purdue vs. Arizona St
Liberty Bowl Dec 31st 2:30 PM ESPN Louisville vs. Boise State
Peach Bowl Dec 31st 6:30 PM ESPN Miami vs. Florida
Outback Bowl Jan 1st 10:00 AM ESPN Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl Jan 1st 10:00 AM FOX Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
Gator Bowl Jan 1st 11:30 AM NBC Florida St vs. W Virginia
Capital One Bowl Jan 1st 12:00 PM ABC Iowa vs. LSU
Rose Bowl Jan 1st 4:00 PM ABC Michigan vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl Jan 1st 7:30 PM ABC Pittsburgh vs. Utah
Sugar Bowl Jan 3rd 7:00 PM ABC Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl Jan 4th 7:00 PM ABC USC vs. Oklahoma
*6-5 Akron stays home as the only eligible team not going bowling this season.
The New Orleans Bowl N Texas vs. Southern Miss
Once again North Texas lays claim to the Sun Belt’s lone bowl: The New Orleans. Last year, they faced Memphis on this same night, losing 27-17. This time around, they’ll be looking to continue their 7 game win streak with a victory over the Rebels from Southern Miss.
While all the talk has been about the freshman phenomenon Adrian Peterson up in Oklahoma, the fact is the nation’s best freshman running back is the Eagles own Jamario Thomas. He leads the nation in rushing at 190 yards/game, including 5 straight 200 yard games to close out his season. On the other side of the ball is a Southern Miss team that had Cal within their sights the entire 60 minutes of their season finale.
While the Rebels certainly proved that they have the ability to play with the big boys, this one will present a difficult match up problem for them: their 83rd ranked run defense against the nation’s 22nd ground attack and most prolific rusher.
Look for the Rebels to stack the line and shoot the gaps to contain the powerful Mean Green run game. If that happens, Southern Miss ought to be able to jump out to a quick lead and force North Texas to play catch up –something thay definitely aren’t suited to.
The Rebel Yell will be heard loud and clear on the streets of the Big Easy.
Tangerine Bowl Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse
It’s a BEast grudge match in the Tangerine –er, Champ Sports, bowl as mediocre Georgia Tech takes on mediocre Syracuse. Talk about not getting any love, the Orange absolutely destroy BC in the season finale 43-17 and all they get is something called the Champ Sports Bowl!?! Well, they did struggle just to reach the post season, but hey so did these Jackets.
Tech finished out the season in disappointing fashion: losing two straight to Virginia and in-state uber-rival Georgia. The Yellow Jackets rank in the bottom half of just about every major statistical category in the ACC –but that’s just about what you’d expect from them in a conference featuring Miami, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and NC State. But if you wanna talk scary, you need look no further than the man leading the charge for Tech: Reggie Ball. Yes, Ball, the exciting young player who can win one all on his own shoulders –but more often than not snatches defeat from the wings of victory all on his own (can anyone forget those last two plays of the regular season where he spiked the ball on 3rd and 20 and then threw the ball away on 4th down!?!).
The key in this one will be the running of Damon Rhodes and the iron-man play of Diamond Ferri. In their upset of BC, these Orange-men combined for 251 yards on 36 carries as Ferri earned all conference honors of the week on both offense and defense. With almost a month off to prepare, look for the coaches to get Diamond more involved with the O –and if that’s the case, expect the Orange to take the sting out of the Yellow Jackets. If Ferri isn’t the difference maker, then at least the Orange can rely on Ball giving them the game if it comes down to it.
GMAC Bowl Memphis vs. Bowling Green
The Falcons will be taking a trip to the GMAC bowl this season after getting knocked out of the MAC title game by a furious 20 point come from behind victory at the hands of the Toledo Rockets. The Memphis Tigers are 8-3 overall and a whisker (37 seconds) away from upsetting now BCS ranked #7 Louisville.
Bowling Green boasts the MAC’s most diversified offense, the nation’s 2nd ranked pass attack, and the nation’s 3rd best turnover margin. Memphis, on the other hand, is 111th in the nation in pass defense but has a top 10 unit on offense overall.
While everyone may have been talking about Leinart, White, and Smith for the Heisman, the real deal is right here in the MAC: BG’s Omar “The Touch Maker” Jacobs. He has quietly thrown for 3,637 yards, a nation leading 36 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions while at the same time running for another 388 yards and 4 scores on 88 carries. While his competition may not have been as good as what those ‘other’ guys faced, it certainly is in line with what the Tigers should be able to throw at him –which means he should have a field day.
If Memphis wants a bowl win to close out the ’04 season, they’ll have to not only clamp down on Omar, they’ll have to get it done on the ground with DeAngelo Williams. He’s rushed for over 200 yards in each of their past 4 games, willing his team to a 3-1 mark (that lone loss was the 37 second heartbreaker to Louisville). If they can pop DeAngelo past the Falcon line, they should be in good shape, but I just don’t think the MAC has gotten enough respect this year –especially on defense (when was the last time that happened among the mid-majors?!?).
I’m going with the Mean Green Falceen and their Touch Maker.
Fort Worth Bowl Marshall vs. Cincinnati
Thanks to a severely tanked North Division, the Big12 was unable to make it’s 8th bowl commitment (well, actually their 9th bowl team seeing as how to Big12 teams are in the BCS yet again). Fortunately for ‘Fort Worth’, the Thundering Herd were more than willing to ride into town to face CUSA’s Bearcats. While the season ender for Cinci was something of a disappointment (a 70-7 wood shedding by Louisville), they had managed to outscore their opponents 187-67 in the four games prior to that. In their one MAC matchup this season, they sunk their claws into Miami of Ohio to the tune of 45-26. But that was early on in the season, and this Herd is a totally different animal.
After starting 0-3 against the likes of Troy, Ohio State, and Georgia (losing by a combined 15 points), the Herd have gone 6-2. And while you’d expect them to excel in a particular facet of the game –or at least have a headliner that takes control of the team and leads them to victory, as it typically the case for the Herd, that really isn’t the case with this year. QB Stan Hill is good enough to get the job done, but if he sometimes gets pick happy. TB Earl Charles is a steady enough hoss to carry the rock and handle the load (he’s topped 100 yards each time Hill has gotten pick-happy), but he’s not a game breaker. Instead, the Herd rely on a ‘team’ attack, dishing the ball to several receivers and using two back sets where either back can get the ball on any given play.
For Cinci, it’s all about the quarterbacking skills of Gino ‘Yes, my mother hated me’ Guidugli who has thrown for 2400 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. If he’s back and 100% for this one –he suffered a broken hand in the Louisville game —expect the Bearcats to be able to keep up with the Herd. Regardless, expect Marshall to Thunder away into the night as the lights fade on this ’04 season.
Las Vegas Bowl Wyoming vs. UCLA
In a battle of ‘just barely eligibles’, 6-5 UCLA takes on 6-5 Wyoming. UCLA’s Maurice Drew has been a total sled dog when he’s healthy, but he’s still struggling with a nagging high ankle sprain that will keep him a step slow through the end of December. The Cowboys finished off the season with 2 straight losses to Utah and New Mexico.
While this one should be a blow out for the Bruins, their 106th ranked defense (111th in run D) might just be the thing that keeps them from going over the .500 mark in all-time post season play (they’re 12-12-1 as of right now). On the other side of the fence, the Cowboys will be looking for their first bowl victory since 1966 –a 38 year drought. In the only serious competition that they’ve faced (A&M and Utah), Wyoming was outscored 76-28, with 14 of those points coming in junk time against Utah.
So all things being considered, I’m doubling down on Drew –QB Drew Olson and TB Maurice Drew.
Hawaii Bowl UAB vs. Hawaii
The Hawaii Bowl hemmed and hawed and gaffed and gacked until the Warriors finally pulled a bowl bid out of the hat by dispatching Michigan State at the end of the season (side note: why do they even bother listing the Hawaii Bowl as getting the WAC’s top team? If Hawaii qualifies, they always get it!).
Mack’s younger brother Watson Brown has earned UAB their first bowl bid in school history. Too bad it’s in Hawaii, against Hawaii, and in Jimmy Chang’s swan song game. Yep, that’s right, the 8th year senior (okay, maybe it’s only his 6th season but boy it sure seems like he was playing when JR got shot by Sue Ellen!) is ‘finally’ finishing up his NCAA career. While he’s already the nation’s career leader in passing, you just know both he and Hawaii want to send him out in style.
In this one, I’ve got to take Chang and the home team –can UAB seriously remain focused with all those bitch’n waves rolling in? While the game itself might not be much to dance to, just getting to see that Rainbow Warrior go nuts on the sideline, spearing things left and right will be entertainment enough (if you haven’t seen the Hawaii mascot, you seriously have to catch this one: he’s one of those intangibles that make college pigskin so ridiculously superior to the Pro’s).
Pick: Hawaii, if for no other reason than those boys from Birmingham won’t be able to keep the Poi down from their pre-game Luau.
MPC Bowl Fresno State vs. Virginia
The Cavaliers turned down a trip to the Champ Sports bowl so that they could take travel up into some frozen tundra to Boise in December. Fresno State, after crumbling under the Top 25 microscope earlier in their campaign, have put their ship back in order and won 5 straight in convincing fashion: a combined 280-80.
For the Bulldogs, they’ve gotten it done behind running backs Bryson Sumlin and Wendell Mathis. They have combined for 1,878 yards this season, and have given their tenacious D (the WAC’s best unit) all the rest they need on the sideline.
Meanwhile, Virginia has ‘only’ played in one of the roughest conferences in the country: the new ACC. While they’ve gone 0-3 against the ACC big boys (Virginia Tech, Miami, and Florida State), those are the only 3 losses they’ve got. They’re tops in the conference in rushing (good for 12th in the nation) behind tailback tandem Alvin Pearlman and Wali Lundy, and their defense is 15th best in the nation –good for ‘only’ 5th in the ACC.
While I’d love to see Fresno pull off the upset –and they’re certainly capable of it—I just don’t see that happening in this one. UVa is simply too sharp and boasts the best tight end in the nation –Heath Miller- who will present an extremely difficult match up problem for the Bulldog D. Add to that the fact that Virginia is ‘still’ the 15th best defense after the schedule they’ve played and you know Fresno isn’t going to be able to just waltz up and down the field.
Motor City Bowl Toledo vs. Connecticut
After getting snubbed last year, UConn finally makes it to post season Nirvana (they joined D1A just 3 seasons ago). Unfortunately for them, they get their crack in a Bowl Game against the MAC Champion that also doubles as the home team: Toledo is, what, 30 minutes from Ford Field in Detroit?
Even so, this is Dan Orlovsky’s ‘big time’ game –the one where he can show the scouts that he still deserves that 1st rounder consideration. Last season, he was simply phenomenal as a passer, but this year –without a threat in the backfield with him- defenses have kept him from taking over the game. Despite that though, you just know Randy Edsell with find a way to get his quarterback in a groove and flying high (Orlovsky has thrown for less than 200 yards only once this season) –and against the nation’s 2nd worst pass defense, you just know he’s drooling every time he goes over those game tapes.
But all that being said, how can you go against a Toledo Rocket team with a guy named Scooter sledding with the rock? Scooter McDaniel is the Rocket’s top ground threat, becoming the featured back late in the season –but responding by running for 412 yards in the final 3 games. But if Scooter doesn’t get you, QB Brad Gradkowski certainly will. He has thrown for 3,475 yards and 27 touchdowns this season (is anybody else noticing that the MAC is loaded with quarterback talent? –we’ll just have to see how all these bowl games go to find out if the MAC Qs really are that good, or their pass defenses really is that bad).
While the Rockets certainly take a while to get out of the gate, when their O gets humming –it really gets humming (just ask Bowling Green and Miami of Ohio!). Expect the Huskies to start out a bit timid in their first ever Bowl Game, but jump to a lead by halftime. In the second half, it’ll come down to adjustments: can the Huskies 20th ranked pass defense keep Gradkowski in check or will he Rocket them for a 3rd straight time to victory in the 2nd half? My money’s on Toledo –they are an offensive machine when they finally catch a gear.
Independence Bowl Iowa State vs. Miami (Oh)
Miami of Ohio is 6-1 in postseason play. Iowa State finished last season 2-10 after winning their first two games (that’s right a 10 game skid to end the year). The last bowl game the Cyclone’s were at was the Independence in 2001 –where they lost to Alabama on a field goal that was ruled ‘wide right’ by the officials (it towered over the goal posts, thus forcing the refs to ‘call it in the air’.
Miami’s Josh Betts has thrown for 3,255 yards and 22 touchdowns and has been a solid replacement for departed QB Ben Roethlisberger –if the Iowa State D can shut him down, they should win this one relatively easily. The Cyclone’s Bret Meyer has thrown for 1,812 yards but come on strong as of late, throwing for at least 200 yards in their final 3 games –wait, is that really impressive? TB Stevie Hicks is a heartbeat away from a 1,000 yard rushing season (something that has been sorely missed in Ames). Also helping their cause will be freshman WR Todd Blythe. At 6-5, he can snag just about any ball thrown his direction. He leads the Big12 at 22 yards/catch. If Meyer can get him the ball in the open field –it’ll be an easy 6 nine times out of ten. In this one, I’ll take the Cyclones 17th ranked pass defense against a team that is 101st in the turnover battle.
Insight Bowl Notre Dame vs. Oregon St
While the Irish head coaching saga continues, lost in all the shuffle is the Irish team. How can they possibly stay focused enough to face a Beaver squad that ‘should’ be as feared as any team in the nation, but doesn’t get one iota of respect? The Irish should have done the classy thing and bowed out of bowl season, thereby letting 6-5 Akron get into the act (they are the only bowl eligible team this season that isn’t playing in December or January) –oh but I forgot, ND has been completely devoid of class these past few weeks. Okay, okay, that’s a cheap one. My apologies, but you still gotta wonder what’s going on up there under all those Golden Domes.
If the Irish can pull together and just be a ‘team’ in this one, that chemistry alone should notch them the dubbya. However, if the off the field distractions get to them –and I don’t see how they can’t, then they’re in trouble. Oregon State has the nation’s 8th rated pass attack, the 6th ranked pass defense, and 22nd overall defense.
QB Derek Anderson is probably the one quarterback in a BCS league that you haven’t heard of –but should have. He’s thrown for an amazing 3,257 yards and 25 touchdowns –it’s his 17 picks that have kept him out of the limelight. Even so, this is a Beaver squad that doesn’t quit and finds ways to be in the in the game all the way to the end. Oh, and did I forget to mention that OSU lost three games to LSU, USC, and Stanford by a combined 14 points?
The Irish, meanwhile, have lost 3 of their last four –including dropping their last 2 straight by yielding 41 points to both Pittsburgh and USC. Their pass defense is 114th in the nation (yes Irish fans, it’s 3rd worst in the country) and while they’re balanced on offense, they are balanced in mediocrity: 77th on the ground and 54th through the air). The brightest spot in this team is their run defense, 9th in the country. The only problem with that: the Beavers won’t be running the ball (they are 2nd to last in the nation on the ground).
If the Irish can keep their domes on straight, they’ll need to smack Anderson around to get him to toss a few crucial picks. If that happens, the Irish should escape out of Phoenix with a victory.
But like I said, I don’t think the Irish players will be able to keep focused for this one, so look for Oregon State to repeat a big bowl win over the Irish (they met 3 years ago in the Fiesta Bowl during, oddly enough, Willingham’s first season).
Alamo Bowl Ohio St vs. Oklahoma St
The only thing that can be guaranteed here is that OSU will win the Alamo –which OSU is open for conjecture. Oklahoma State has the distinction of playing in the toughest 6 team mini-conference in the nation. Ohio State has the distinction of playing in the Big10 and, well let’s face it, of being Ohio State.
The Buckeyes finished the season with a statement victory over the Wolverines 37-21, while the Cowboys were bushwhacked out in the desert plains by Tech, 31-15 to end their season and keep them out of the Holiday Bowl.
With Vernon Morency sledding and Donovan Woods a dual threat under center, the Buckeyes will have a tough time defencing this Cowboy attack. And let’s not forget Woods’ younger brother, D’Juan, at wide out –he can be a difference maker if left alone on an island.
For the Buckeyes, they’ve got something special in Ted Ginn Jr. –this boy can do it all. He’s #1 in the nation in fielding punt returns, taking 4 to the big house, and has the speed to rip off huge chunks of yards in the few touches he gets on offense. If the Cowboys can put a Poke on him every time he enters the game, they should be able to keep him under wraps. If that’s the case, don’t expect Ohio State to muster much on offense (they rank 100th in total O).
I’m going with Oklahoma State –they simply have too much talent on offense for the Buckeyes to keep manhandled for a full 60.
Silicon Valley Classic Troy vs. NIU
Do you know the way to San Jose? You can sure bet the men of Troy and a band of Huskies do. The Trojans closed out their year with 4 straight wins over Sun Belt brethren, all the while posting a descent 2-2 non-conference record against Missouri (W), Marshall (W), LSU (L), and South Carolina (L).
NIU, on the other hand, has won 7 of their last 8, and was tripped up by Maryland in their season opener by a field goal and Iowa State in a nail biter. They’ve got the nation’s 12th ranked scoring offense to go along with the nation’s 13th ranked ground attack (tops in the MAC) headlined by Garrett Wolfe who wasn’t able to play in their lone loss over that 8 game stretch to close out the season. For the season, Wolfe has 1,572 yards and 17 touchdowns, including a monster 325 yard game against directional school, Eastern Michigan, in the season finale.
For the Trojans, they’ll lean on their defense and the outstanding running of DeWhitt Betterson. Troy is 7th in run defense and 17th overall in the nation (both good enough for the top spot in the Sun Belt). The soft spot on the offense is the passing game: 114th in the nation. Senior Aaron Leak was benched mid way through the year after throwing more picks than touchdowns(8 to 5), but Freshman D.T. McDowell has faired little better, throwing for just 463 yards on 36-of-84 attempts and netting 3 INTs to 4 TDs.
In this one, I’d love to see the Sun Belt rise up and become a true ‘mid-major’ power, but I just don’t see it happening: the Huskies, while not especially dominant on defense, should be able to line up and knock the Trojan QB around all day. If that happens, the Huskies will control the tempo of the game and let their sled dog do the rest.
Continental Tire Boston College vs. N Carolina
Talk about being miffed, but for that final melt down game against the Orange, BC would be facing Utah in the BCS. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, get rewarded for closing out the season with 3-of-4 dubbyas, including that gem of a game over Miami and that near miss against Virginia Tech just 7 days later.
If BC can’t find it’s magic from the Irish game, this one could be over very early. RB Chad Scott has come strong on at the end of the season for Carolina, rushing for 649 of his 798 yards in those final 4 games and waltzing into the Zone 6 times. And as if that wasn’t enough, QB Darian Durant has cut down on his lone bug-a-boo: interceptions. Over the final 4 game stretch he threw only 3 picks to 6 touchdowns (not hall-of-fame numbers to be sure, but light years ahead of his 5 picks to 3 touchdowns ratio he held during an earlier 4 game stretch this season).
Staring down that dual threat will be the Big East’s #2 run and pass defense. With QB Paul Peterson the heart and soul of this Eagle team, he’ll have to play a picture perfect game in order to pull BC’s fat out of the fire. With this one, it’ll come down to what BC can do defensively against North Carolina and whether the Tar Heels can keep Peterson isolated and ineffective when the 4th quarter rolls around. Expect the BC defensive line to bottle up TB Scott and dare QB Durant to beat them with his arm. If they can do that, then they’ll have the Tar Heels right where they want them: in a shoot out.
However, I don’t think the BC line will be able to adapt to the running of Scott and the run/pass of Durant. And in the final weeks of the season, the NC D proved that they can be a force to be reckoned with, holding Miami to just 77 yards rushing, Virginia Tech to just 100 yards passing, Wake Forest to 109 yards passing, and Duke to just 53 yards rushing. In the end, I fully expect the Eagles to be tarred and feathered.
The EV1.net Houston Bowl UTEP vs. Colorado
Okay, I haven’t been able to address this yet, and it simply must be said: Gary Barnett is the Big12 Coach of the Year?!?! What kind of crap is that! Ok, sure, he took a program that was just begging to have an oh-fer season and kept them competitive in the Big12 North, but you know what? So did Iowa State’s McCarney –and he did it with much less talent than Colorado and when nobody expected them to do squat! Barnett is running a program that is so out of control, the AD quit, the State Legislature is barring the release of their investigative report to the general public, and nobody with a 10-foot pole will even touch the university, much less the football program. Okay, so maybe Barnett isn’t to blame for ALL of that –but you can’t honestly believe he’s totally innocent either.
Well, that being said, let’s get back to the Houston Chameleon bowl –at least that’s what they should call it: One year it’s the GalleryFurniture.com Bowl, the next it’s just the Houston Bowl, then it’s the EV1.net Bowl –it’s just too many names in too few seasons. Besides, I’ve got a bajillion chameleons in my back yard and not a single piece of Gallery Furniture or EV1 email).
Anyway, enough with the rants. The Buffs get an up and coming UTEP Miners squad this year in Houston –and it’s really an ideal matchup, coaching wise, considering what Mike Price has been threw over the past couple of years and what Barnett has had to deal with this season.
Price is as good as it gets when you talk football minds, unfortunately that’s about all he’s got, but at a school like UAB that can be a god send. The Miners are playing for their first bowl win since the 1967 Sun Bowl and Colorado will be looking to get some post-season play for its 47 freshman players (at least, Barnett won’t have to rely on recruiting to get his team going these next couple of years).
Bobby Purify is the Buffs top dog, but for all the pub he gets he still just barely crossed the 1,000 yard barrier this season (he narrowly missed dropping back under the 1,000 yard mark with his 7 yard effort against OU in the Big12 championship game). On the other side of the ball is Howard Jackson, who has sledded for 1150 yards and 9 touchdowns –including a 5-game stretch of straight 100-yard games (a Miner record).
UTEP is 8th in the nation in scoring offense, but that might not be saying much considering they went oh-fer in their non-conference schedule. Colorado on the other hand has played a brutal Big12 South schedule which includes Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State and finished with the 94th ranked offense and the 101st ranked defense. But what do rankings mean when you’re comparing schedules as diverse as these?
This one will come down to Colorado. Are they okay with the way they played against OU in the title game or are they hungry to finish the season on a brighter note? QB Joel Klatt will need to play smart to keep from giving away the pigskin too much (he’s thrown 15 picks and only 9 touchdowns all season) and Purify will have to be healthy and STAY healthy during the game (has he played an entire 60 minutes healthy since 2001?). If they can do that, then the Buffaloes’ll stampede out of Houston with the win.
Emerald Bowl Navy vs. New Mexico
Some day, somebody will have to explain to me why there is an Emerald Bowl but no Ruby or Diamond Bowl. Until then, we’ll just have to sit back and enjoy as the Midshipman sail into San Fran and take on the Lobo’s.
This one promises to be long on ground burners and short on aerial fireworks as both teams are among the best on the ground (Navy is 3rd in the nation and New Mexico is 35th), and exactly one cut above abysmal through the air. On Defense though, the Lobo’s are 8th best in defending the run and will match up much more favorably in this one.
FB Kyle Eckel leads the Middie’s attack with 1,062 yards on the ground (hey, that’s more than CU’s Bobby Putrify, but I bet you heard his name much more this past season!), and with Aaron Polanco a dual threat at quarterback, that might just be enough to keep the Lobo’s from getting to ravenous on D.
For New Mexico, RB DonTrell Moore leads their ground attack with 1083 yards and 6 touchdowns. The eradict play of QB Kole McKarney (47% completion rate with 7 INTs and 5 Touches) has limited the Lobo’s to a one dimensional attack all season. Will that be enough to keep the Midshipman from ganging up to stop the run? I doubt it. Look for Navy to take control of the tempo early in this game and then sit back and ride out the 2nd half storm as New Mexico just isn’t built to play catch up.
Holiday Bowl Texas Tech vs. California
Now we get into the meat of Bowl Season! If you ask me though, I think A&M should be going out west for this one instead of the Air Raid. Why? I just don’t see Tech being able to contain J.J. Arrington the way the Wrecking Crew could. Plus, a blow out win here and we’ll never hear the end of Cal’s Rose Bowl Rant (and if you think Cal would blow out the Aggies, I’m sorry but what have you been smoking?).
That said, Cal will definitely have its hands full trying to contain an offense the likes of which they have NEVER seen. Sure, there’s the copious amount of footage on the Tech offense, but until you experience them lining up on your defensive line with their ultra-wide splits, you really haven’t ‘seen’ them.
The most interesting match up will obviously be the Air Raid’s O against Cal’s DBs –they’re as good a unit as any in the nation. But what will really be key to this game is how Tech defends the Bear run game: if they can contain JJ, they’ve got a serious shot at the upset as Aaron Rodgers will be without 2 big time targets in Geoff McArthur and David Gray (one to injury, one to felony).
Well, I’m almost certain the Golden Bears will win this one, but I’m still calling on the Air Raid for one last, magnificent battle.
Music City Bowl Minnesota vs. Alabama
This one should feature some good old fashion smash mouth as the Golden Gophers boast one of the most potent ground attacks in the game behind Laurence Maroney and Marion Barber, and the Tide have yet to give up the century mark to a single runner (boasting the nation’s 2nd ranked overall defense).
The difference maker in this one could be the play of Tide QB Spencer Pennington who took over for injured starter Brodie Croyle. Pennington has been anything but reliable for the Tide, tossing 8 picks in 7 games and only finding the end zone 3 times. But in the season finale against Auburn, things seemed to finally start clicking for him, throwing for 226 yards on 17 of 30 passing.
With the Gophers boasting one of the nation’s worst pass defenses, this could be the game where Pennington lives up to his billing and exacts revenge for a season full of frustration. If that doesn’t happen –and the smart money says it doesn’t—look for a healthy Gopher O-Line to rollback the Tide and pop Maroney and Barber for some big runs.
Sun Bowl Purdue vs. Arizona St
In what can only be termed a disappointment after blazing out of the gates at 5-0, Purdue lands in the Sun Bowl thanks to season ending victories over Ohio State and Indiana. Kyle Orton, in particular, has had to deal with the lion share of the criticism as it was the young defense that wasn’t expected to produce much that made Purdue’s post season dreams come true.
Rated at #8 in the nation, there is no question that Orton has the skills to succeed at the pro level –and with his hip pointers and flexors healthy, he should rain a world of hurt down on the Sun Devils. Consider this, in the 8 games in which he played with two healthy hips, Orton threw for 2,632 yards, 26 touchdowns and only 4 picks -completing 64% of his passes. Is there any other quarterback in the nation that has put up such gaudy numbers in just eight games –who doesn’t play for the Air Raid, that is.
On the other side of the ball, ASU will be without superstar Andrew Walter, a none too shabby QB who has quietly thrown for 3,150 yards, 30 touchdowns and 9 picks this season. That will in all likelihood prove the difference maker in this one as the Devils will have to find a way to get the ground game rolling against the Boilermaker’s 10th ranked defensive unit. And while ASU was able to run away with one in surprising fashion against Iowa earlier in the season, this one won’t be a Waterloo for Orton & Co.: All Aboard.
Liberty Bowl Louisville vs. Boise State
In what would have been the best bowl matchup of the entire season, Utah took the ‘easy’ way out and accepted a BCS bid to play Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl (can you just imagine how good a Louisville-Utah game would have been?). That being said, a Boise State-Louisville Liberty Bowl won’t be none too shabby either.
Boise State puts the nation’s longest win streak (22) on the line as they travel out of Idaho for just the 4th time this season. QB Jared Zabranksy leads the Bronco offensive juggernaut that is ranked 2nd overall in the nation (11th with the run and 14th with the pass). While their run defense is 4th in the nation, don’t let that ranking fool you: opposing teams just haven’t had a chance to play anything other than catch up against these guys. Oh, and how do Zabranksy’s numbers stack up you ask? 2,728 yards, a paltry 15 touchdowns and 11 picks (a sort of ho-hum set of stats for such a fireball of an offense, don’t you think?).
On the other side of the ball, the Louisville Cardinals are one, 7 second Devon Hestor punt return away from being undefeated and making the Texas-Cal argument a moot point. They’ve got the offensive prowess and the defensive muscle to make any BCS team do a head jerk. Stefan Lefors leads not just the Cardinals offense, but also the nation in quarterback rating –yep, he’s numero uno with a 185.39 rating, throwing for 2,403 yards, 18 touchdowns and a remarkable 2 INTs (he also owns a breathtaking 74.0 completion percentage).
In this one, all that it really comes down to is Louisville: will the usual Cardinal team show up, or the own that gave up 49 to Memphis? I’m betting on the ‘usual’ Cards to be dealt in this one, but either way it will certainly be one of the more entertaining Bowl Games of the Oh-Fo Season.
Peach Bowl Miami vs. Florida
It’s a good old fashioned Florida grudge-match to finish the year. Brick Berlin leads a Cane squad in search of a soul after having it smashes to bits against Virginia Tech –yet again—in the final game of the season. Brick has thrown for over 2,500 yards this season, but failed to bring it home when the team has needed him most –and thus one of the reasons Miami will not be playing in a BCS bowl for the first time in 5 years.
For Florida, they’ll be without the services of Ron Zook, and will already be looking forward to next year when Urban Meyer comes to town –you just know the off season to come and go fast enough for QB Chris Leak. Ciatrick Fason is the Gators main threat on the ground, a punishing rusher who has rushed for 1,173 yards this season to keep the Bulldogs and Seminoles from making a piñata out of Leak. He’ll have to do it again in this own as the Canes will undoubtedly be gunning for the quarterback’s head.
These two teams last met in 2003 during the regular season with the Gators coming out on the short end of the stick 38-33. This time, expect the final score to be a little wider –but not the end result. With Frank Core, Tyrone Moss, Roscoe Parish, and Devin Hestor at the skill positions, the Canes should be able to out hustle the Gators in relative ease.
Outback Bowl Wisconsin vs. Georgia
What better way to kick off the new year than with the Badgers’ Erasmus James and the Bulldogs’ David Pollack? Wisconsin stumbled at the tail end of their season, dropping their final two to Michigan State and Iowa (both away games) by a combined 79-21 margin (they had given up 82 points the entire season to that point!). Georgia finished the season with a 6 point victory over rival Georgia Tech, but had all their hopes and dreams dashed by a 24-6 loss to Auburn that previous week.
Georgia is still a dangerous team with the nation’s 10th rated passer David Greene playing a little pitch and catch with Reggie Brown. Greene has thrown for under a 150 yards in only one game this season, and has amassed 18 touchdown strikes to just 2 picks while completing 60% of his passes –oh, and lest we forget, he’s only the NCAA’s winningest quarterback of all-time.
Wisconsin should have a healthy Anthony Davis back in at the tailback position –something they really haven’t had very often, and the offense lacks a noticeable punch when he’s not on the field: the team has scored just 20 points in 4 games when TD doesn’t play. Underneath center, the Sophomore John ‘Stuck in Neutral’ Stocco will be leading this ‘rag tag fugitive fleet’ (sorry, I just saw a Battlestar Gallactica preview –is that show even necessary, and on a side note: whatever happened to Space: Above and Beyond?). Stucco has made 8 touches but 7 picks this season, while his reads have gotten better as the season has progressed (55-of-115 in the first 5 games, 84-of-121 in the next 5), he reverted a good bit in the season finale, throwing for just 145 yards on 18-of-38 passing, 2 picks, and no touchdowns against Iowa –ah, but maybe not having TD I that game had something to do with it.
For the bulldogs, the defense is obviously the strong suit of the team, anchored by Pollack they are the nation’s 12th rated unit, so don’t expect Stocco to really be able to pick them apart. However, with a healthy TD in the line up, DO expect the Badgers to be able to run on these Dawgs –cause that’s what a Barry Alvarez team does.
Oh, and let’s not forget one other all important aspect to this game: the Badger D. They finished the season at #8 in the country (7th against the pass) and 1st in sacks. Their front line is without a question one of the best I have ever season in college football. With a completely healthy line, the Badgers ravaged opposing teams while their offense was stuck in neutral (if you didn’t get a chance to see them play early on in the season up at Camp Randall, then you missed one of the season’s greatest moments). This defense showed the nation how to destroy west-coast offenses: 4 lineman that can’t be contained by the offensive line man smack the quarterback while the corners and db’s play bump and run to disrupt timing routes.
If the Bulldog O-line can’t slow down this Badger pass rush, Greene and the whole of Georgia are going to have a long day. I’m going with that Badger D in a defensive game for the ages.
Cotton Bowl Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
If we can’t get A&M to ‘downgrade’ to the Holiday, can we then just consider giving the SEC slot to Cal? I mean, it’s not like the SEC can fill all their bowl slots anyway, and let’s face it: why not have Cal play in the Cotton if Texas is playing in the Rose?
The Aggies will get to cut their non-conference teeth on the Volunteers on New Year’s Day, as the re-found/rediscovered/resurgent power in the Big12 South makes a claim to the national stage. At the beginning of the season, they were demolished, destroyed, and devastated by Utah, but by the end of the season they were dancing toe-to-toe with the Texas’ and Oklahoma’s of the pigskin world. This Tennessee team had better be on the look out: they wear orange, their initials are U-T, and that alone is enough to get these Aggies pumped and primed for all full 60 minutes.
Cedric Houston leads the Vol ground attack while the freshman Danny Ainge holds down the reigns under center. For the Aggies, it’s Reggie McNeal, Terrance Murphy, and Courtney Lewis who form a ‘triplet triangle’ that makes opposing defenses go crazy trying to defend.
Most Interesting Stat of the Game: A&M lost four games this season. Three of them were to the Top 6 teams in the nation (OU, Texas, and Utah) –the 4th was to Baylor. If the Aggies have a ‘Baylor’ game in this one, it’ll be over in the 1st quarter. If not, expect Reggie to volunteer his way into the endzone –time and time again. Ags in a surprise route.
Gator Bowl Florida St vs. W Virginia
WVa returns to the Gator Bowl after losing to Maryland last season and won’t be happy with anything less than a victory over the Seminoles. While the offense has continued to struggle for Florida State (22% 3rd conversion rate is the worst in the country), their defense has excelled (ranked #1 in run defense, giving up only 69 yards/game). This will be an interesting match up to see as the Mountaineers’ Rasheed Marshall is a two-way threat, throwing for 1,755 yards and running for another 780 (2nd most on the team). West Virginia is #7 in the nation on the ground, averaging 254 yards/contest and when KJ is healthy, there isn’t much that can stop him.
The Seminoles will go with Chris Rix to start in this one, but if he falters early expect to see the young Wyatt Sexton take over. In my opinion, ole’Bowden must be smoking something to give Rix the nod: he has thrown for all of 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 7 games this season. And thus I must make the call: Rix will Nix the ‘Noles right in the Gator.
Capital One Bowl Iowa vs. LSU
Iowa was a Big10 favorite until their blow out loss to Arizona State down in the Desert back in Week 3. It took them some time to put their season together after that earth-shattering loss, losing to Michigan the following week. But since then, they have been on a tear, winning their last 7 straight, including consecutive ones against Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. What has been more amazing than anything else is that this was supposed to be a dominant running team, but the loss of 5 straight running backs at the beginning of the season has forced a retooling on offense (Iowa is 117th in the nation running now). Their defense is clearly what keeps this team winning, ranked 10th overall and allowing just 90 yards/game on the ground, the Hawkeye D should be able to contain LSU and keep them bottled up –and with 6 weeks for their offense and ‘a couple’ of their running backs to heal (Iowa last played on Nov 20th), that 117th run stat isn’t the real deal.
LSU escaped an opening season upset to Oregon State (solely because OSU’s place kicker missed 2 PATs in a 1 point game!), lost by a point to Auburn and got blown out by Georgia. After all that, they closed out the season with six straight victories. Marcus Randall leads this offense, but has thrown for only 1,180 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions –hardly scaring. And if you think LSU is just a run team instead, then your right. They rank 19th in the nation on the ground, and they get it done by committee (their leading rusher Alley Broussard has just 758 yards this season). The strength of the Tigers is –are you sensing a common theme yet among the elite bowl teams?- their defense, rated #3 in the nation. They yield just 98 yards/game on the ground and 145 yards through the air. Will the still hobbled Hawkeye’s be able to break through the Tiger defense, or will they get whacked down by that Big Red Stick?
My gut tells me Iowa is the real deal, but LSU’s stats are so outrageous it’s hard to go against them. The deciding factor for me is the large dolphin shaped cloud hanging over Nick Saban’s head. He is reportedly interested in the Miami head coaching job (at 4-5 Mill a year, wouldn’t be?), and LSU has already stated they are ‘maxed out’ on salary. Hawkeyes.
Rose Bowl Michigan vs. Texas
Since 2001, there have been as many Big12 teams in the Rose Bowl as their have been PAC10 teams. Do you think that’s got the Rose-heads a bit miffed? Do you think things might just change now that ABC has the Rose contract and Fox has the BCS? Side note: the Rose pays out $14.5 Million to their teams, the Orange pays out just $14.0 –hmmm.
Michigan’s Braylon Edwards may be the ‘senior’ for the Wolverines, but it’s the freshman that have been making the most impact: RB Michael Hart and QB Chad Henne. Hart has sled for 1,372 yards this season, including a 3 game 200+ yard/game stretch against Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State. Henne has thrown for 2,516 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. While the Wolverines aren’t fearsome in any one particular aspect, it is their well-roundedness than makes them such a fearsome opponent on the schedule.
Texas’ Cedric Benson leads the nation with 19 rushing touchdowns, has a total of 1,764 yards rushing this season, and has rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 out of 11 games (the only one he missed was a 98 yard effort against OU). QB Vince Young –while good for at least 2 big time mistakes/game—is the team’s #2 rusher with 887 yards on the ground and 1,669 yards through the air (he has thrown 10 picks to 11 touches however).
All of this adds up to Texas being the nation’s #2 rushing offense and the nation’s #105 passing offense. On defense, the Longhorns are 14th in the nation on the ground –an impressive figure when you consider that they played against 4 of the nation’s top 8 running backs this season. But we’d be remiss if we noted that Adrian Peterson rung the Horns bell for 200 yards in a single game and Michael Hart is the closest in style to Peterson of the other running backs Texas has faced (he’s also 9th rated in the nation).
In this first EVER meeting of two of the nation’s most storied programs, I just don’t see how the Rose can really complain all that much: a Wolverines-Longhorns match up is something the pigskin world has been pinning for, for years, and what better way to have it than in the Rose Bowl in January?
As an Orangeblood, I’ve got to take Texas, but in this particular case I really think they are going to win. The defense should be able to shut down Michael Hart and keep Chad Henne under wraps –but Braylon Edwards is the wildcard. This season Texas has given offenses just about everything they want underneath in the passing game –a guy like Edwards can turn those kinds of passes into touchdowns in a hurry. On offense, the Horns will have to grind it out against one the Big10’s stalwarts, but I think it’s the versatility of Vince Young that will keep the Wolves ears pinned back and unable to aggressively lock down on Benson.
Fiesta Bowl Pittsburgh vs. Utah
Not only is this the first ever BCS game to have a mid-major involved in it, but it’s also the only BCS bowl game ever to have teams where both coaches will be changing schools next year: Urban Meyer to Florida and Walt Harris to Stanford. The loss of Meyer by the Ute’s is definitely a heart breaker for that program –as is the loss of 2 other top assistants. While Utah will be playing lights out for their coaching staff, you just have to wonder how much of an emotional drain it is to see your coaches bailing after a great season.
The season Alex Smith has put up the kind of numbers that puts Heisman winner Matt Leinart to shame. He has also shown the kind of leadership that puts the voters for the Heisman to shame (he guided his team to 12-0, and the first ever BCS berth for a non-BCS school –ok, so how does that get overlooked?).
The real tragedy though is that Pitt, at #19, is even in the BCS. Sure, their conference is a founding member of the BCS and thus gets preferential treatment, but that was when Miami and Virginia Tech were members. Now, the BEast is the nothing more than a mild mannered mouse by comparison and completely undeserving of this kind of preferential treatment (just ask California, Texas, Utah, Louisville, or Boise State). While I’m not sold on the idea that Utah could beat any of the other Top 6 teams in the country, I know they can not just beat Pitt, but whoop up on the Panthers (but hey, so could the other Top 10 teams!).
Tyler Palko is indeed the second coming of Dan Marino for Pitt –I am remembering correctly that Marino played at Pitt right? While his overall numbers are impressive: 2,816 yards, 23 touchdowns and 7 picks, it’s his play over the latter half of the season that was ridiculous: 1,570 yards, 16 touchdowns and 2 picks over 5 games against opponents who include Notre Dame, Syracuse, and West Virginia. He is the heart and soul of this team and the only reason that they have made it to bowl season –much less the BCS.
For Utah, you can talk all you want about Meyer and the passing of Alex Smith, but it’s actually the run game that has made them so dominant (quietly 9th in the nation) as Marty Johnson (782 yards), Quinton Ganther (620 yards), and QB Alex Smith (563 yards) lead the ground attack. And while, you may not be able to judge much based upon their Mountain West conference schedule, you can discern a little bit more about this team by their non-conference schedule (396-184) with wins over North Carolina, Texas A&M, and Arizona (110-43). In Urban’s swan song, I’m taking the Ute’s by 14.
Sugar Bowl Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
Will Auburn’s anger turn against them or will it cement their resolve to finish the season a perfect 13-0? Tommy Tuberville, after almost being run out of town by Louisville’s Petrino, has made the come back of all come backs in taking this squad undefeated through the SEC and guiding them to an undefeated season.
While Virginia Tech may have a couple of warts on their record, losing to USC in the season opener 24-13 and to a rabid NC State defense 17-16 are nothing to cry about. This Hokie team will give Auburn every last bit it can handle –proving to be a much tougher opponent than what they faced in the SEC this year.
Bryan Randall leads the Hokies with 1,965 yards passing and last threw an interception on October 9th. Since losing to NC State back in September, the Hokies have been quietly perfect, winning 8 straight against some impressive opponents which include West Virginia, Virginia, and Miami. At the same time, their defense has also climbed the ladder, rising all the way to #4 in the nation overall and #3 in scoring defense, allowing just 12 ½ points a game.
But the War Eagle has a defense of it’s own: ranked #5 in the nation overall and #1 in the country in points allowed at an incredible 11 points/game (and that AFTER going undefeated in SEC play AND winning the title game). Carnell Williams and Reggie Brown head line an Auburn ground attack that consumes 190 yards/contest while QB Jason Campbell holds the nation’s 3rd best passer rating.
Of the BCS games, this one should be the one with most lead changes as the Hokies and the Tigers battle out for supremacy down in Nah’lans. But when the 4th quarter rolls around, I’m expecting to see the running back tandem of Williams and Brown pull the War Eagle to a perfect 13-0 record.
Orange Bowl USC vs. Oklahoma
It’s Leinart vs. White. Peterson vs. Bush. Stoops vs. Carroll. Sooners vs. Trojans. All across that board give me Sooners, Sooners, Sooners, and let’s see… Sooners. IMHO it should be Auburn and OU in this game –that’d even settle the Rose Bowl’s problem by the way! And but for one of the worst officiating calls in recent history, UCLA should’ve beaten USC on December 4th –making all of this ‘moo’ point.
In their last 3 games, OU hasn’t just won –they’ve dominated opposing teams, winning by a 33 point margin (107-6). OU has the nation’s #9 ranked defense -after playing through their Big12 South schedule and also has the nation’s 5th ranked scoring defense (they’ve given up just 6 points in the last 3 games). Adrian Peterson averages 153 yards/game which is only just behind Jason White’s average of 163 yards. They have the nation’s 8th overall offense and are 9th in scoring offense, failing to score at least 4 touchdowns in just one game: the Red River Rivalry over in Dallas during the Texas State Fair.
The Trojans, of course, are no slouch either. They hold the nation’s 2nd longest win streak at 21, are 7th overall in defense and scoring defense (2nd against the run) and 7th in scoring offense. LenDale White and Reggie Bush together average 151 yards/game and the Heisman winner Matt Leinart throws for an average of 155 yards an outing as well. The Trojans have suffered through a few close games this season: VaTech in the opener, Stanford 31-28, Cal 23-17, Oregon State in the Fog Bowl 28-20, and UCLA 29-24 when a bad call by the ump resulted in a 10-point swing in their favor.
Well, seeing as how I’ve already said that OU and Auburn belong in this game, my pick should come as no surprise here: Sooners. Their secondary will take away the quick strike from Leinart while the defensive line and speedy line backers will plug the gaps and stop White and Bush in their tracks. Oh, and if you thought USC was the only one dangerous on returns: Antonio Perkins has a little something he’d like to show you: 8 pigskins in a duffle bag, all of’em punts returned for a touchdown during his career.
posted by TheMOTT at 12:00 AM
