40 Days and 40 Nights
It’s been well more than that since the Of-fO campaign wrapped up with that Trojan thumping of the Sooners, but now is the time to focus on the upcoming fall campaign. The official kick off is Thursday, Sept 1st and that leaves us just 40 days and 40 nights (from the inception of this diatribe) to contemplate the what ifs, might bes, and who knows for the 2005 pigskin year.
But before we talk too much about specific match ups that we’ll get to whet our whistle with on the opening salvo of another glorious grid-iron season, let’s take a moment to pontificate on what might just happen –or not happen—in the upcoming year.
The Coaching Carousel
What better place to start than the head of the snake, the top of the mountain, the leader of the pack? This off season dealt the college football luvin world a veritable monsoon of coaching changes with no less than six top flight coaches changing addresses.
Notre Dame and Charlie Weiss – Is he the savior the Irish have been looking for? I seriously doubt it. Urban Meyer may have fit the bill, but it was the Gators that were able to lay enough bills out on the table to hire him. Notre Dame saved a lot of face with this hire, but Weiss isn’t going to be bringing back the Four Horseman anytime soon. That said, he will undoubtedly be a better fit for the job than Tyrone Willingham who never, ever looked comfortable mixed in with all those golden domes. Since he has no heading coaching experience under his belt, its entirely guesswork as to what he can do with the Fighting Irish, but if I were a betting man I’d say there days of fighting for the national title are still a long, long ways off. While they will certainly be able to field a top 25 team –and maybe even a top 10 team—that’s a far cry from a title shot, especially with the killer schedule that they line up year in and year out. Now it’s no secret that I’m not a ND fan –heck, I love it when they lose, but I can say this: it’s no fun watching them lose when they do it as often as they have been. So here’s to the Irish –may you deliver that Instant Classic upset blow this year and propel yourself back into perennial contention so that I can root lustily against you.
Ty and the Huskies – Speaking of Notre Dame, I never much liked the fact that Tyrone left Stanford to coach them. Yeah, sure it’s a dream job, but there’s the whole thing of how well suited are you to that job? A: Obviously not well. Willingham as always seemed like a perfect small school fit. He has the philosophy, formations, and schemes that can quietly build up a program to compete with any team in the nation every 3 or 4 years and develop incredible top rated NFL talent, but he just doesn’t strike me as someone who can headline a major program year in/year out. Maybe Washington will be a great fit for him, but I have this nagging suspicion that he won’t be able to do much more than right the ship and staunch the bleeding in that program. All that aside, there isn’t a coach out there that exudes class and integrity more than Ty –and that, above all else, is what the Huskies need now.
Greg Robinson, Orangeman – This could be an awesome fit for both schools. The only other assistant to deserve a head coaching job more was Norm Chow. Robinson is an unstoppable motivator and energizer –those of us down here in Texas ought to know, he took an overrated Texas D and turned it into a downright nasty, kick-you-in-your-teeth kind of squad (but, ya know, one that plays fair!). This year, the entire Cuse D is returning and under Robi’s tutelage should play lights out –and have a very realistic chance of being the class of the Big East (but only on D). They are very young and not extremely talented on offense, which will make for a very painful year under the big dome. And Robi fans, don’t expect too much next year either –that’s when they’ll lose pretty much their entire starting defensive unit. Despite that, look for the Orange to soon become one of the juggernauts in a weakened BEast.
Urban ‘Legend’ Meyer, Florida – This just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Meyer is gifted, without doubt. He is a great motivator too, without doubt. But there is this little voice in the back of my mind telling me that this hire is doomed to failure and that Florida will never, ever return to the Visor Days of Old. In fact, I don’t think the Florida schools in general will ever be as dominant as they were in the 80s and 90s (of course, maybe that’s just because I don’t really like ANY of the Florida schools). Meyer is a special talent, yes, but in the big bad SEC and recruiting against a now power house ACC, I just don’t see Florida landing the dominant players that they’ll need to gain supremacy in the polls. Tennessee, Georgia, and Auburn will always give them a run. Bama and Arkansas are snipers and sandtraps just waiting to explode, LSU is as loaded as any team in the nation, and the Gamecocks (with the Visor) will stick it to the Gators each and every time they play.
Les ‘is more’ Miles, LSU – No high profile hire makes less sense to me than this one (unless you count ND missing out on the Urban Legend). Miles is gifted, but he’s a scrapper –not a leader of the football elite (I’m sorry, I love the guy, but that’s just my opinion). This hire is like taking Mike Leach out of Lubbock and planting him at Miami. Sure, he’ll put up big numbers –huge numbers– but he ain’t gonna build a program that will be ‘complete’ and compete for a title for years on end (like Tenn, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, and Miami do).
Frank Solich, Ohio – The MAC picked up a superstar in Solich. Don’t think so? Just look what he did at Nebraska, despite all the failings of the athletic program and its facilities –and what Nebraska has done without him. He’s a perfect fit for Ohio and the MAC –he doesn’t want anything more than to coach in one place for the next 15-20 years and Ohio wants exactly the same thing. Now while the MAC should make the most non-BCS noise this year, but don’t expect talent poor Ohio to be a part of it –this is a serious building project that will take a few years to bear fruit.
Ron Zook, Illinois – Hmmm, this is an interesting pick. Zook really wasn’t a bad coach, he just couldn’t keep the Visor Days going down in the Swamp, but who could have? I think Zook is a very solid coach, but just wasn’t able to handle the expectations in the swamp –something he definitely won’t have to deal with at Illinois. Even so, with his pedigree people will probably expect them to compete for 2nd tier status right out of the box. In a loaded Big10 where Illinois has been an after thought more times than anyone save Northwestern, I just don’t see that ever happening.
Now, I could go on and on about other coaching changes like South Carolina hiring Steve Spurrier, Ed Orgeron taking the reigns at Mississippi, Dave Wannstedt in a home coming of sorts at Pittsburgh, Walt Harris flying the coup to Stanford, or Dick Tomey taking over at San Diego State but where would one draw the line –or find the time?
The Front Runners and the Dark Horses
Now this could be a wee bit lengthy, so I’ll try to keep it down to the pick and a quick note –remember, we’ve still got 40 days and 40 nights to water cooler these things to death…
ACC
Front Runner – Miami. Of course, the Seminoles could change all that with a huge upset win in the season opener –which may be quite a bit easier now that Wyatt Sexton is out for the season with Lyme Disease (seriously, I wish the guy well and a speedy and full recovery, but Wyatt is NOT the quarterback to helm a program like Florida State).
Dark Horse – You could say Virginia Tech here, but many consider them a front runner. While you can never count a Hokie out, they just have too many big time games with NC State, West Virginia, Virginia, and Miami to run the table. My pick in the space is BC. Yep, Boston College. They don’t have Miami on their schedule and they get Florida State and NC State at home. The make or break game for them should be a trip to Hokietown on 10/27. Here’s hoping Vick isn’t all that and a side of Heisman.
Big East
Front Runner – Obviously, with the addition of Louisville to the big bad BEast, they are the front runner. In fact, their toughest game of the season could very well be Pittsburgh and that’s at home.
Dark Horse – For a dark horse, Pitt is too easy of a pick to make, especially with a kid by the name of Tyler Palko sitting over center. They kick off the season with Notre Dame and end it at West Virginia –not the kind of schedule you want if you’re trying to sneak up on the conference crown. For me, the team is West Virginia. They just need to find a new ‘Pac Man’ for their secondary and a steady quarterback that won’t turn the ball over. The Mountaineers should have a monster of a ground game to prop up incoming youngsters in both the receiving corp and quarterback position, oh and a killer d-line to keep that score within reach of the worm burners.
Big Ten
Front Runner – Take your pick in this year’s conference edition: Michigan, Ohio State, or Iowa. For me, it’s the Wolverines. Building off of last year, they’ve got the best one-two punch in the conference in QB Henne and RB Hart. The question will be if the Wolves D can find a way to stop mobile quarterbacks –like the kind they will face in Michigan State’s Drew Stanton and Ohio State’s Troy Smith.
Dark Horse – Without a doubt, the Dark Horse of the Big 10 is Purdue. Sure, they lost all everything golden boy Kyle Orton, but in return they get Brandon Kirsch, a loaded receiving corps and offensive line, and a defense that returns all 11 starters. With a schedule that manages to evade games with both Michigan and Ohio State –not to mention getting Notre Dame and Iowa at home—this could finally be the year of the Biolermaker.
Big 12
Front Runner – This year it has to be Texas. The north division is, well, still in shambles. The South Division, while being every bit as competitive as last year lacks a superpower OU club and contains an Aggie squad that is still a year or two away from playing for grid iron glory in January. As such, Texas with VY, a very experienced offensive line, and as solid a defense heading into the season as I’ve seen a long, long time is the definite pick to run the table in the Dirty Dozen.
Dark Horse –This one’s a toughy. You could legitimately say any North Division team –after all, one of them has to make it to the title game, and on any given Saturday… But I’m not going to wuss out like that. Nope, the tough pick here is between The Texas Air Raid and the Wrecking Crew. Frenchie is primed for a great season, but this IS the Big 12 South –it takes a lot to get through the B12S. Texas Tech on the other hand is buoyed by that pasting of Cal in the Holiday Bowl and should actually sport a defense that will make the other team earn their points. For that reason, the Air Raiders are my choice for Dark Horse.
C*USA
Front Runner – You would think adding Marshall to the mix would make them front runners, but the Herd just isn’t what it used to be (they were horrible on offense last season AND they are returning only 3 starters). My front runner pick here is going to sound like a Dark Horse: UTEP. Under Mike Price, UTEP exploded onto the scene last season, finishing an astonishing 9-2 and 7-1 in conference play. Expect more of the same this season as transfers from the West Coast back fill slots lost to departing seniors and QB Jordan Palmer opens it up with speedsters Jason Boyd and Johnnie Lee Higgins.
Dark Horse – UAB. Ordinarily, I’d say Southern Miss but most other people will have them as front runners in C*USA and that just wouldn’t be very dark horsey now would it? UAB will have to find a way to replace both their starting deep threat receivers, and they’ll have to shore up the mushy run defense, but they’ve got solid talent in the ground game and under center, plus a lot of returning starters on D so hopefully they won’t be that mushy.
MAC
Front Runner – Okay, in this conference picking a Front Runner and a Dark Horse makes no sense. There are four teams that are legitimate contenders for the crown with all the other teams standing virtually no chance at post season play if the NCAA would adopt a sane stick to measure with (6 wins should not a post season make). You’ve got Toledo, Northern Illinois, Miami of Ohio, and Bowling Green. It’s a tough choice, but when you consider the pub that’s being generating in the preseason, you have to go with Omar Jacobs and Bowling Green. Right now, he is being projected as one of the top 3 QBs in the nation, next to USC’s Lienart and that Sun Devil Sam Keller (seriously folks, make a point to catch one of them dessert desert games Saturday night with this guy –you won’t be disappointed).
Dark Horse – So what’s left? NIU, Toledo, and Miami. Toledo’s offense got rolling at the end of 04 with Gradkowski under center, but will their dismal defense be able to improve? NIU once again has a stable of tailbacks to terrorize the pass happy MAC, their defense should be much improved, but their linebackers are still the soft spot on the team. Miami has Josh Betts returning along with his entire starting offensive line, and a defense that should be the class of the MAC. With all that being said, it’s hard to call it a Dark Horse, but I’m going with the RedHawks.
But lets keep the MAC in perspective: the fun thing about these guys isn’t the chase for the conference title, it’s the very realistic shot that each of these four teams has at knocking off a Big 10 team in the first 2 weeks of the season.
M-West
Front Runner – Utah. It has to be. Sure they lost quite a few guys from last year as well as Urban Meyer, but look around the MAC and what do you see? A whole bunch of also-rans.
Dark Horse –TCU. They’re new to the MWEST, and have serious issues with the ground game, but I think they’ll find the Mountain West and C*USA are quiet comparable when it comes to talent.
PAC10
Front Runner – The undisputed king of the castle is USC. Until somebody, anybody, can knock them off they’ve earned this distinction. That being said, I’ll eat my hat if the Trojans go undefeated once again this season (the odds are just sooooo stacked against them).
Dark Horse – You could say Cal, you could say Oregon. You could even say UCLA, but you’d be wrong. The Dark Horse here is A-State. The Sun Devils have a date with destiny on October 1st in Death Valley. That’s when the Trojans come a calling, and that’s when Sam Keller, Derek Hagan, and Zach Miller should become household names.
SEC
Front Runner – Geez, take your pick. Do you go with the Urban Gators, the Vols, Georgia and their new hoss DJ Shockley, or how about LSU or even Auburn? Well, Florida –sorry, I’m just not buying that Chris Leak is all that and then some. Georgia –you lost the all time winningest QB in NCAA history as well as all-universe DE David Pollack –you’ll be good, very good, but not the front runner. LSU? Maybe. They’ve got more talent than anyone –probably more than Miami, Texas, Michigan, Ohio State, and USC. But they also have a new coach, and I’m not so sure they are going to be able to run the table here. What about Auburn? After being screwed last year will they find a way to the promised land? Maybe, but that then isn’t the status of a front runner. And so that leaves Tennessee. Eric Ainge and Rick Clausen return as heady QBs that play beyond their years, Gerald Riggs returns as the TB who didn’t know how to stop running, and their defense figures to be one of the best in the nation with NFL talent at every position.
Dark Horse – Who then is the dark horse? If you want an insane long shot, go with Bama. Brodie Croyle will be healthly and should roll the Tide to victory –and an upset or two. But for me, the Dark Horse is going to be Auburn. They lost their entire starting backfield to the NFL in the first FIVE PICKS. They have a solid team and great coaching, but the trick will be finding the right guy at QB and gelling early enough in the season to stay in the hunt for a SEC title.
Sun Belt
Front Runner – North Texas. Okay, I don’t know a lot about the Sun Belt Conference, but North Texas is the only school in the conference that doesn’t make me chuckle and smile when I think about Bowl Teams.
Dark Horse – It could be Troy –they were certainly looking good last year until the wheels came off the cart against …Boise State I believe? But in this space, I’m going for UL-Monroe –one of the perennial worst teams in America. Why the sudden faith in the Indians? Well, how can you turn down a team who’s #1 rated player is the Punter?!? Seriously though, QB Steven Jyles is a Marcus Vick type player, throwing the ball just as well as he runs it –that should put Sun Belt Defenses in a tizzy trying to defend him –especially with his entire offensive line returning. On Defense, the Indians boast a line that is laden with all seniors. It might not be pretty, but this looks like the best UL-Monroe team that is going to be fielded for quite some time.
WAC
Front Runner – Boise State and the home of the Blue Turf. If they can survive –not win, just survive, a tortuous opening slate of AT Georgia and AT Oregon State, they should run away with the conference.
Dark Horse – Fresno State isn’t much of a Dark Horse pick as they stand a very real chance of opening up 7-1 before playing anyone with a heart beat (except Oregon, whom I except them to get that ‘L’ from). They also get Boise State at home, so the more I think about it, the more I’m leaning to swapping these picks.
Independents
Why is this even carried as a category? You’ve got Army, Navy, Temple, and Notre Dame. Who do you think is going to have the best season?
The Weekly Story Lines
In 2003 it was Championship Saturday, Showdown Saturday, Survival Saturday, Silly Saturday, and just about any name you could come up with. In 2004, it was unbelievable bone headed plays (missed PATs, missed Field Goals, and mangled clock management); ridiculous lock-down defenses (Wisconsin’s D-Line –yes they ALL got drafted in the first 2 days, NC State’s rabid Wolfpack D that set ACC records, and Penn State’s scrappy D that kept them in the game when they had no business being there); Quarterback Clinics from Kyle Orton (well, at least in the first half of the season), Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, Timmy Chang, David Greene, and the incredible footwork of Mr. Vince Young in the Rose Bowl; some punter named Payne who played football like he was The Running Man; the now almost routine Sooner Meltdown at the end of the season; and a feeble Joe Pa and PSU offense that springs nothing else to mind but P-U.
What will it be this season? The fun answer: I have no idea, but I can’t wait to see. JoPa is certain to claim his share of the stage, alongside at least one of the Bowden Boys. Which commercials will stand out, forever imprinted in your brain like Under Armour, Lincoln’s new mug on the five dollar bill, or those amazingly annoying Fanta girls? Oh, and of course, there is bound to be drama over the new coaches and non-BCS schools, not to mention the NEW BCS Formula including something called a Harris Poll –oh, and don’t forget the AP Poll will still be handing out National Championship hardware at the end of the season –on their own terms!
Of course, there will probably be no less than 10 games botched by instant replay. Yep, that’s my guess: no less than 10. Now I’m a fan of replay, and I think it will eventually work out very well for everyone concerned, but the speed with which everyone has jumped on the bandwagon this season is very troubling. In fact there has been such a rush to judgment that I think the only plausible outcome is that horrible mistakes will be made. The only thing that will make it worse is the fact that each conference has its own little nuances to replay: nuances that aren’t gonna make a whole heck of a lot of sense to the fans, the players, the coaches, the refs, or anyone else for that matter –especially in those non-conference games.
Ah well, there it is, the end of my tome. The best thing that can be said is this: It’s 40 days and 40 nights from now until the Visor tips off the season for us. It’s a long wait from now, but it’s also such a short, short time to spend around the water cooler before the facemasks are donned and the chalk hits the turf. So enjoy the tome, and let me know your thoughts/opinions all things pigskin before the season starts. I’ll be sending out the first week’s slate of games shortly –it’ll be a doozy of a 5-game stretch staring off with the Visor on one channel and the Bulldogs on another and running all the way through until the Canes and Seminoles knock heads for a Monday Nite Showdown.
Cheers.
But before we talk too much about specific match ups that we’ll get to whet our whistle with on the opening salvo of another glorious grid-iron season, let’s take a moment to pontificate on what might just happen –or not happen—in the upcoming year.
The Coaching Carousel
What better place to start than the head of the snake, the top of the mountain, the leader of the pack? This off season dealt the college football luvin world a veritable monsoon of coaching changes with no less than six top flight coaches changing addresses.
Notre Dame and Charlie Weiss – Is he the savior the Irish have been looking for? I seriously doubt it. Urban Meyer may have fit the bill, but it was the Gators that were able to lay enough bills out on the table to hire him. Notre Dame saved a lot of face with this hire, but Weiss isn’t going to be bringing back the Four Horseman anytime soon. That said, he will undoubtedly be a better fit for the job than Tyrone Willingham who never, ever looked comfortable mixed in with all those golden domes. Since he has no heading coaching experience under his belt, its entirely guesswork as to what he can do with the Fighting Irish, but if I were a betting man I’d say there days of fighting for the national title are still a long, long ways off. While they will certainly be able to field a top 25 team –and maybe even a top 10 team—that’s a far cry from a title shot, especially with the killer schedule that they line up year in and year out. Now it’s no secret that I’m not a ND fan –heck, I love it when they lose, but I can say this: it’s no fun watching them lose when they do it as often as they have been. So here’s to the Irish –may you deliver that Instant Classic upset blow this year and propel yourself back into perennial contention so that I can root lustily against you.
Ty and the Huskies – Speaking of Notre Dame, I never much liked the fact that Tyrone left Stanford to coach them. Yeah, sure it’s a dream job, but there’s the whole thing of how well suited are you to that job? A: Obviously not well. Willingham as always seemed like a perfect small school fit. He has the philosophy, formations, and schemes that can quietly build up a program to compete with any team in the nation every 3 or 4 years and develop incredible top rated NFL talent, but he just doesn’t strike me as someone who can headline a major program year in/year out. Maybe Washington will be a great fit for him, but I have this nagging suspicion that he won’t be able to do much more than right the ship and staunch the bleeding in that program. All that aside, there isn’t a coach out there that exudes class and integrity more than Ty –and that, above all else, is what the Huskies need now.
Greg Robinson, Orangeman – This could be an awesome fit for both schools. The only other assistant to deserve a head coaching job more was Norm Chow. Robinson is an unstoppable motivator and energizer –those of us down here in Texas ought to know, he took an overrated Texas D and turned it into a downright nasty, kick-you-in-your-teeth kind of squad (but, ya know, one that plays fair!). This year, the entire Cuse D is returning and under Robi’s tutelage should play lights out –and have a very realistic chance of being the class of the Big East (but only on D). They are very young and not extremely talented on offense, which will make for a very painful year under the big dome. And Robi fans, don’t expect too much next year either –that’s when they’ll lose pretty much their entire starting defensive unit. Despite that, look for the Orange to soon become one of the juggernauts in a weakened BEast.
Urban ‘Legend’ Meyer, Florida – This just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Meyer is gifted, without doubt. He is a great motivator too, without doubt. But there is this little voice in the back of my mind telling me that this hire is doomed to failure and that Florida will never, ever return to the Visor Days of Old. In fact, I don’t think the Florida schools in general will ever be as dominant as they were in the 80s and 90s (of course, maybe that’s just because I don’t really like ANY of the Florida schools). Meyer is a special talent, yes, but in the big bad SEC and recruiting against a now power house ACC, I just don’t see Florida landing the dominant players that they’ll need to gain supremacy in the polls. Tennessee, Georgia, and Auburn will always give them a run. Bama and Arkansas are snipers and sandtraps just waiting to explode, LSU is as loaded as any team in the nation, and the Gamecocks (with the Visor) will stick it to the Gators each and every time they play.
Les ‘is more’ Miles, LSU – No high profile hire makes less sense to me than this one (unless you count ND missing out on the Urban Legend). Miles is gifted, but he’s a scrapper –not a leader of the football elite (I’m sorry, I love the guy, but that’s just my opinion). This hire is like taking Mike Leach out of Lubbock and planting him at Miami. Sure, he’ll put up big numbers –huge numbers– but he ain’t gonna build a program that will be ‘complete’ and compete for a title for years on end (like Tenn, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, and Miami do).
Frank Solich, Ohio – The MAC picked up a superstar in Solich. Don’t think so? Just look what he did at Nebraska, despite all the failings of the athletic program and its facilities –and what Nebraska has done without him. He’s a perfect fit for Ohio and the MAC –he doesn’t want anything more than to coach in one place for the next 15-20 years and Ohio wants exactly the same thing. Now while the MAC should make the most non-BCS noise this year, but don’t expect talent poor Ohio to be a part of it –this is a serious building project that will take a few years to bear fruit.
Ron Zook, Illinois – Hmmm, this is an interesting pick. Zook really wasn’t a bad coach, he just couldn’t keep the Visor Days going down in the Swamp, but who could have? I think Zook is a very solid coach, but just wasn’t able to handle the expectations in the swamp –something he definitely won’t have to deal with at Illinois. Even so, with his pedigree people will probably expect them to compete for 2nd tier status right out of the box. In a loaded Big10 where Illinois has been an after thought more times than anyone save Northwestern, I just don’t see that ever happening.
Now, I could go on and on about other coaching changes like South Carolina hiring Steve Spurrier, Ed Orgeron taking the reigns at Mississippi, Dave Wannstedt in a home coming of sorts at Pittsburgh, Walt Harris flying the coup to Stanford, or Dick Tomey taking over at San Diego State but where would one draw the line –or find the time?
The Front Runners and the Dark Horses
Now this could be a wee bit lengthy, so I’ll try to keep it down to the pick and a quick note –remember, we’ve still got 40 days and 40 nights to water cooler these things to death…
ACC
Front Runner – Miami. Of course, the Seminoles could change all that with a huge upset win in the season opener –which may be quite a bit easier now that Wyatt Sexton is out for the season with Lyme Disease (seriously, I wish the guy well and a speedy and full recovery, but Wyatt is NOT the quarterback to helm a program like Florida State).
Dark Horse – You could say Virginia Tech here, but many consider them a front runner. While you can never count a Hokie out, they just have too many big time games with NC State, West Virginia, Virginia, and Miami to run the table. My pick in the space is BC. Yep, Boston College. They don’t have Miami on their schedule and they get Florida State and NC State at home. The make or break game for them should be a trip to Hokietown on 10/27. Here’s hoping Vick isn’t all that and a side of Heisman.
Big East
Front Runner – Obviously, with the addition of Louisville to the big bad BEast, they are the front runner. In fact, their toughest game of the season could very well be Pittsburgh and that’s at home.
Dark Horse – For a dark horse, Pitt is too easy of a pick to make, especially with a kid by the name of Tyler Palko sitting over center. They kick off the season with Notre Dame and end it at West Virginia –not the kind of schedule you want if you’re trying to sneak up on the conference crown. For me, the team is West Virginia. They just need to find a new ‘Pac Man’ for their secondary and a steady quarterback that won’t turn the ball over. The Mountaineers should have a monster of a ground game to prop up incoming youngsters in both the receiving corp and quarterback position, oh and a killer d-line to keep that score within reach of the worm burners.
Big Ten
Front Runner – Take your pick in this year’s conference edition: Michigan, Ohio State, or Iowa. For me, it’s the Wolverines. Building off of last year, they’ve got the best one-two punch in the conference in QB Henne and RB Hart. The question will be if the Wolves D can find a way to stop mobile quarterbacks –like the kind they will face in Michigan State’s Drew Stanton and Ohio State’s Troy Smith.
Dark Horse – Without a doubt, the Dark Horse of the Big 10 is Purdue. Sure, they lost all everything golden boy Kyle Orton, but in return they get Brandon Kirsch, a loaded receiving corps and offensive line, and a defense that returns all 11 starters. With a schedule that manages to evade games with both Michigan and Ohio State –not to mention getting Notre Dame and Iowa at home—this could finally be the year of the Biolermaker.
Big 12
Front Runner – This year it has to be Texas. The north division is, well, still in shambles. The South Division, while being every bit as competitive as last year lacks a superpower OU club and contains an Aggie squad that is still a year or two away from playing for grid iron glory in January. As such, Texas with VY, a very experienced offensive line, and as solid a defense heading into the season as I’ve seen a long, long time is the definite pick to run the table in the Dirty Dozen.
Dark Horse –This one’s a toughy. You could legitimately say any North Division team –after all, one of them has to make it to the title game, and on any given Saturday… But I’m not going to wuss out like that. Nope, the tough pick here is between The Texas Air Raid and the Wrecking Crew. Frenchie is primed for a great season, but this IS the Big 12 South –it takes a lot to get through the B12S. Texas Tech on the other hand is buoyed by that pasting of Cal in the Holiday Bowl and should actually sport a defense that will make the other team earn their points. For that reason, the Air Raiders are my choice for Dark Horse.
C*USA
Front Runner – You would think adding Marshall to the mix would make them front runners, but the Herd just isn’t what it used to be (they were horrible on offense last season AND they are returning only 3 starters). My front runner pick here is going to sound like a Dark Horse: UTEP. Under Mike Price, UTEP exploded onto the scene last season, finishing an astonishing 9-2 and 7-1 in conference play. Expect more of the same this season as transfers from the West Coast back fill slots lost to departing seniors and QB Jordan Palmer opens it up with speedsters Jason Boyd and Johnnie Lee Higgins.
Dark Horse – UAB. Ordinarily, I’d say Southern Miss but most other people will have them as front runners in C*USA and that just wouldn’t be very dark horsey now would it? UAB will have to find a way to replace both their starting deep threat receivers, and they’ll have to shore up the mushy run defense, but they’ve got solid talent in the ground game and under center, plus a lot of returning starters on D so hopefully they won’t be that mushy.
MAC
Front Runner – Okay, in this conference picking a Front Runner and a Dark Horse makes no sense. There are four teams that are legitimate contenders for the crown with all the other teams standing virtually no chance at post season play if the NCAA would adopt a sane stick to measure with (6 wins should not a post season make). You’ve got Toledo, Northern Illinois, Miami of Ohio, and Bowling Green. It’s a tough choice, but when you consider the pub that’s being generating in the preseason, you have to go with Omar Jacobs and Bowling Green. Right now, he is being projected as one of the top 3 QBs in the nation, next to USC’s Lienart and that Sun Devil Sam Keller (seriously folks, make a point to catch one of them dessert desert games Saturday night with this guy –you won’t be disappointed).
Dark Horse – So what’s left? NIU, Toledo, and Miami. Toledo’s offense got rolling at the end of 04 with Gradkowski under center, but will their dismal defense be able to improve? NIU once again has a stable of tailbacks to terrorize the pass happy MAC, their defense should be much improved, but their linebackers are still the soft spot on the team. Miami has Josh Betts returning along with his entire starting offensive line, and a defense that should be the class of the MAC. With all that being said, it’s hard to call it a Dark Horse, but I’m going with the RedHawks.
But lets keep the MAC in perspective: the fun thing about these guys isn’t the chase for the conference title, it’s the very realistic shot that each of these four teams has at knocking off a Big 10 team in the first 2 weeks of the season.
M-West
Front Runner – Utah. It has to be. Sure they lost quite a few guys from last year as well as Urban Meyer, but look around the MAC and what do you see? A whole bunch of also-rans.
Dark Horse –TCU. They’re new to the MWEST, and have serious issues with the ground game, but I think they’ll find the Mountain West and C*USA are quiet comparable when it comes to talent.
PAC10
Front Runner – The undisputed king of the castle is USC. Until somebody, anybody, can knock them off they’ve earned this distinction. That being said, I’ll eat my hat if the Trojans go undefeated once again this season (the odds are just sooooo stacked against them).
Dark Horse – You could say Cal, you could say Oregon. You could even say UCLA, but you’d be wrong. The Dark Horse here is A-State. The Sun Devils have a date with destiny on October 1st in Death Valley. That’s when the Trojans come a calling, and that’s when Sam Keller, Derek Hagan, and Zach Miller should become household names.
SEC
Front Runner – Geez, take your pick. Do you go with the Urban Gators, the Vols, Georgia and their new hoss DJ Shockley, or how about LSU or even Auburn? Well, Florida –sorry, I’m just not buying that Chris Leak is all that and then some. Georgia –you lost the all time winningest QB in NCAA history as well as all-universe DE David Pollack –you’ll be good, very good, but not the front runner. LSU? Maybe. They’ve got more talent than anyone –probably more than Miami, Texas, Michigan, Ohio State, and USC. But they also have a new coach, and I’m not so sure they are going to be able to run the table here. What about Auburn? After being screwed last year will they find a way to the promised land? Maybe, but that then isn’t the status of a front runner. And so that leaves Tennessee. Eric Ainge and Rick Clausen return as heady QBs that play beyond their years, Gerald Riggs returns as the TB who didn’t know how to stop running, and their defense figures to be one of the best in the nation with NFL talent at every position.
Dark Horse – Who then is the dark horse? If you want an insane long shot, go with Bama. Brodie Croyle will be healthly and should roll the Tide to victory –and an upset or two. But for me, the Dark Horse is going to be Auburn. They lost their entire starting backfield to the NFL in the first FIVE PICKS. They have a solid team and great coaching, but the trick will be finding the right guy at QB and gelling early enough in the season to stay in the hunt for a SEC title.
Sun Belt
Front Runner – North Texas. Okay, I don’t know a lot about the Sun Belt Conference, but North Texas is the only school in the conference that doesn’t make me chuckle and smile when I think about Bowl Teams.
Dark Horse – It could be Troy –they were certainly looking good last year until the wheels came off the cart against …Boise State I believe? But in this space, I’m going for UL-Monroe –one of the perennial worst teams in America. Why the sudden faith in the Indians? Well, how can you turn down a team who’s #1 rated player is the Punter?!? Seriously though, QB Steven Jyles is a Marcus Vick type player, throwing the ball just as well as he runs it –that should put Sun Belt Defenses in a tizzy trying to defend him –especially with his entire offensive line returning. On Defense, the Indians boast a line that is laden with all seniors. It might not be pretty, but this looks like the best UL-Monroe team that is going to be fielded for quite some time.
WAC
Front Runner – Boise State and the home of the Blue Turf. If they can survive –not win, just survive, a tortuous opening slate of AT Georgia and AT Oregon State, they should run away with the conference.
Dark Horse – Fresno State isn’t much of a Dark Horse pick as they stand a very real chance of opening up 7-1 before playing anyone with a heart beat (except Oregon, whom I except them to get that ‘L’ from). They also get Boise State at home, so the more I think about it, the more I’m leaning to swapping these picks.
Independents
Why is this even carried as a category? You’ve got Army, Navy, Temple, and Notre Dame. Who do you think is going to have the best season?
The Weekly Story Lines
In 2003 it was Championship Saturday, Showdown Saturday, Survival Saturday, Silly Saturday, and just about any name you could come up with. In 2004, it was unbelievable bone headed plays (missed PATs, missed Field Goals, and mangled clock management); ridiculous lock-down defenses (Wisconsin’s D-Line –yes they ALL got drafted in the first 2 days, NC State’s rabid Wolfpack D that set ACC records, and Penn State’s scrappy D that kept them in the game when they had no business being there); Quarterback Clinics from Kyle Orton (well, at least in the first half of the season), Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, Timmy Chang, David Greene, and the incredible footwork of Mr. Vince Young in the Rose Bowl; some punter named Payne who played football like he was The Running Man; the now almost routine Sooner Meltdown at the end of the season; and a feeble Joe Pa and PSU offense that springs nothing else to mind but P-U.
What will it be this season? The fun answer: I have no idea, but I can’t wait to see. JoPa is certain to claim his share of the stage, alongside at least one of the Bowden Boys. Which commercials will stand out, forever imprinted in your brain like Under Armour, Lincoln’s new mug on the five dollar bill, or those amazingly annoying Fanta girls? Oh, and of course, there is bound to be drama over the new coaches and non-BCS schools, not to mention the NEW BCS Formula including something called a Harris Poll –oh, and don’t forget the AP Poll will still be handing out National Championship hardware at the end of the season –on their own terms!
Of course, there will probably be no less than 10 games botched by instant replay. Yep, that’s my guess: no less than 10. Now I’m a fan of replay, and I think it will eventually work out very well for everyone concerned, but the speed with which everyone has jumped on the bandwagon this season is very troubling. In fact there has been such a rush to judgment that I think the only plausible outcome is that horrible mistakes will be made. The only thing that will make it worse is the fact that each conference has its own little nuances to replay: nuances that aren’t gonna make a whole heck of a lot of sense to the fans, the players, the coaches, the refs, or anyone else for that matter –especially in those non-conference games.
Ah well, there it is, the end of my tome. The best thing that can be said is this: It’s 40 days and 40 nights from now until the Visor tips off the season for us. It’s a long wait from now, but it’s also such a short, short time to spend around the water cooler before the facemasks are donned and the chalk hits the turf. So enjoy the tome, and let me know your thoughts/opinions all things pigskin before the season starts. I’ll be sending out the first week’s slate of games shortly –it’ll be a doozy of a 5-game stretch staring off with the Visor on one channel and the Bulldogs on another and running all the way through until the Canes and Seminoles knock heads for a Monday Nite Showdown.
Cheers.
posted by TheMOTT at 6:30 PM
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